Although Punjab recovered from the violent insurgency that peaked between 1984 and 1995 and re-established itself economically, socially, and culturally, experts argue that historical grievances, socio-economic distress, mounting public debt, geopolitical influences, and shortcomings in governance continue to create conditions that separatist groups seek to exploit.
Punjab has demonstrated remarkable resilience since the insurgency ended. The state witnessed significant global migration, and a new generation of internationally recognised personalities emerged after the period of violence, including Sidhu Moosewala, Simranjit Kaur, Shubman Gill, and Harmanpreet Kaur. Despite this progress, mainstream Punjab remains primarily focused on economic survival, employment, migration, and development, while unresolved historical issues continue to fuel periodic demands linked to separatist ideology.
Observers argue that Punjab's historical vulnerabilities are often triggered during periods of frustration. Issues such as the farmers' agitation, demands for the release of imprisoned militants who have completed their sentences, allegations of extrajudicial killings, government crackdowns, alleged human rights violations, incidents of sacrilege, and the deepening debt crisis continue to revive old grievances. Law and order concerns also remain in focus. Punjab's criminal network has attracted international attention, with even former Police Station House Officer Gurinderjit Singh Nagra appearing on the Federal Bureau of Investigation's wanted list.
Punjab's historical grievances trace back to the Punjab Reorganisation Act of 1966, under which Haryana and Himachal Pradesh were carved out of the erstwhile state. Political disputes over Chandigarh and the sharing of river waters, particularly the Sutlej-Yamuna Link Canal issue, have remained unresolved for decades. Operation Blue Star and the anti-Sikh riots of 1984 continue to be invoked as symbols of religious injustice and identity-based discrimination. Radical groups frequently use these events to question governance and present separatism as an alternative.
The prolonged delay in delivering justice has also reinforced public resentment. Although convictions were eventually secured in several high-profile cases, the process took decades, creating a widespread perception of institutional neglect. Sikh organisations continue to preserve memories of the insurgency and counter-insurgency through annual commemorations, music, social media, films, and literature. Films including Satluj, Punjab 1984, Hawayein, 47 to 84, Jogi, and Dharam Yudh Morcha have contributed to emotional engagement with this period among sections of Punjabi society.
Economic distress has emerged as another major challenge. Punjab's once-prosperous agricultural economy has struggled with stagnation as the wheat-paddy monoculture has become increasingly unsustainable because of groundwater depletion and deteriorating soil health. Agriculture recorded negative growth of 2.5 per cent during the 2025-26 financial year, highlighting the state's continued dependence on traditional crop cycles.
Heavy dependence on tube-well irrigation, supported by free electricity subsidies, has significantly depleted groundwater reserves, raising concerns about long-term desertification. The Punjab government spends approximately Rs 15,550 crore on electricity subsidies, accounting for nearly 5.97 per cent of the state's total budget outlay.
The agricultural crisis has also intensified fiscal pressure and social distress. Rising cultivation costs and stagnant crop yields have trapped small and marginal farmers in both institutional and informal debt. A landmark study conducted jointly by Punjab Agricultural University, Guru Nanak Dev University, and Punjabi University documented 16,606 deaths among farmers and agricultural labourers between 2000 and 2015. A follow-up study by Punjab Agricultural University covering six districts, including Sangrur, Bathinda, and Mansa, recorded another 9,291 such deaths between 2000 and 2018.
Experts believe prolonged agrarian distress has contributed to unemployment, psychological stress, declining self-worth, and growing mental health concerns. Punjab's drug problem is also linked to unemployment and frustration among young people.
The state's economic performance has increasingly lagged behind neighbouring Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. Punjab's per capita income ranges between approximately Rs 1.95 lakh and Rs 2.27 lakh, compared with Rs 3.25 lakh to Rs 4.04 lakh in Haryana and around Rs 2.83 lakh in Himachal Pradesh.
According to Dr Varinder Sharma, Director of the Institute for Development and Communication at Panjab University, Chandigarh, Punjab's unemployment rate stands at 5.3 per cent, exceeding the national average of 3.1 per cent. Rural unemployment remains significantly higher at 22.5 per cent compared with 14.8 per cent in urban areas. He said employment opportunities remain scarce for semi-literate youth because industrial development has largely remained confined to urban centres, while rural regions have failed to attract comparable investment.
Punjab's financial position has further weakened because of rising debt. The inability to create adequate educational, healthcare, and civic infrastructure has been closely linked to the state's growing financial burden. Nearly one-fourth of the state's revenue is spent on loan repayments and interest. Outstanding debt has crossed Rs 4.17 lakh crore and is projected to increase to approximately Rs 4.48 lakh crore by 2027.
The long-anticipated transition from an agriculture-based economy to manufacturing and services has not materialised. Manufacturing contributes only 29 per cent to the Gross State Domestic Product. Several industries continue to face stagnation because of geographical disadvantages and competitive tax incentives offered by neighbouring Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
Growing unemployment has also accelerated migration. A study by Punjab Agricultural University found that more than 73 per cent of young people who migrated abroad after 2016 came from rural areas. The global Punjabi diaspora is estimated at approximately 15 million people. Many unemployed youths have reportedly sold agricultural land to finance overseas migration.
Geopolitical developments have also contributed to the persistence of separatist narratives. Hardline Khalistan supporters living abroad have sought to portray the Indian government as oppressive and anti-minority by amplifying historical grievances and seeking asylum abroad on claims of persecution. Organisations including Sikhs for Justice have organised unsuccessful referendum campaigns, while demonstrations frequently take place during visits by Indian dignitaries overseas. Incidents involving the desecration of non-Sikh places of worship and disputes over the control of Sikh religious institutions have also featured in these campaigns.
Separatist groups have used human rights campaigns and legal advocacy to promote allegations against India. In the case involving the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, the Canadian government and Khalistan supporters publicly accused India of involvement. Former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau intensified diplomatic tensions after stating that there were credible allegations linking the Indian government to the incident. The Canadian government later stated that there was no evidence connecting the Indian government to the killing and that the murder had instead been orchestrated by criminal gangs.
The legacy of the Air India Flight 182 bombing, commonly known as the Kanishka bombing of June 23, 1985, also remains contentious. The attack killed 329 people. According to the report, Canadian authorities were reluctant for decades to acknowledge the involvement of Khalistan supporters, while extremist groups based in Canada continue to glorify those responsible.
Intelligence agencies have reported that unemployed youths from Punjab are sometimes lured abroad with promises of employment before being absorbed into radical diaspora networks. These groups are accused of using liberal legal systems in Western countries to portray extremist activities as political dissent. Campaigns on social media, protests outside Indian diplomatic missions, and attempts to storm Indian embassies are described as components of organised anti-India propaganda.
Political dissatisfaction has further complicated the situation. Unresolved religious, agricultural, and economic issues, combined with shifting political alliances and repeated allegations of corruption, have weakened public confidence in the political establishment. Many voters increasingly view mainstream political parties as disconnected from public concerns.
As traditional parties, including the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal, struggle to address structural problems, voter disillusionment has deepened. The expansion of welfare-based politics, continuing agrarian distress, and rising unemployment contributed to lower voter participation in rural local body elections while also creating electoral space for independent and radical candidates during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Critics argue that political leaders have often prioritised short-term electoral gains instead of addressing structural reforms, improving public services, delivering timely justice, and implementing police reforms.
The report also highlights political contradictions. While the Shiromani Akali Dal organised a screening of the banned film Satluj, based on the life of Jaswant Singh Khalra, his wife, Paramjit Kaur Khalra, publicly stated that the party did not support the family's pursuit of justice while it was in power. Similarly, Union Minister Ravneet Singh Bittu raised the issue of targeted killings of Hindus during the insurgency only after joining the Bharatiya Janata Party, although the issue was not highlighted during his tenure in the Congress.
The continued interaction of historical grievances, economic hardship, financial stress, international activism, and political discontent demonstrates that while large-scale insurgency has subsided, the conditions that periodically revive separatist narratives have not been completely eliminated. The persistence of these interconnected challenges underscores the importance of sustained governance, economic reform, institutional accountability, and public confidence in preventing the re-emergence of extremist ideologies in Punjab.
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