Monsoon Progress Stalls Across India as Satellite Images Reveal Unusual Cloud Deficit, Raising Concerns Over Rainfall and Agriculture

Fresh observations from the European weather satellite Meteosat, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and ISRO’s INSAT-3DS satellite have revealed worrying developments. According to the latest images, the characteristic bands of monsoon clouds that normally dominate large sections of India during this period are largely missing. Experts have described the phenomenon as a “monsoon pause.”

Under normal conditions, the southwest monsoon reaches Kerala on June 1. This year, however, its onset was delayed by three days, with the monsoon arriving on June 4. Following its arrival, the system advanced rapidly and covered extensive areas of southern India, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal within a short period. By the second week of June, the monsoon had reached Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Goa, parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, Bihar, and most areas of northeastern India. However, its progress came to an abrupt halt thereafter.

The slowdown has occurred even before the monsoon could fully advance into central India. According to a News18 report, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that central India recorded nearly 65 percent below-normal rainfall between June 4 and June 16. Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and several surrounding districts received little to no rainfall during this period. The development is particularly concerning because this phase is considered crucial for the sowing of kharif crops, increasing anxiety among farmers.

Meteorologists attribute the situation primarily to the absence of strong low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal. Such systems typically develop during June and play a critical role in advancing the monsoon. They transport moisture from the sea into the country’s interior regions, sustaining rainfall activity. This year, however, such systems have been largely absent. In addition, active western disturbances over northern India have affected the normal movement and direction of monsoon winds.

El Niño Adds to Growing Concerns

Another factor intensifying concerns is the activation of El Niño conditions. The IMD has already indicated the possibility of a strong El Niño phase during the June-to-September monsoon season. Such conditions are commonly associated with below-normal rainfall across India. Historical records show that El Niño years significantly increase the likelihood of deficient monsoon rainfall, and similar concerns are emerging this year.

Weather experts emphasize that monsoon rainfall is rarely uniform throughout the season. Deficits recorded in June have often been compensated by stronger rainfall during July. However, this year’s concerns stem from the simultaneous emergence of multiple warning signals. The stagnation of monsoon progress, the lack of cloud cover visible in satellite imagery, and the possibility of a strong El Niño phase have combined to create an unsettling outlook.

The next two weeks are considered critical for India’s agricultural sector. Key kharif crops such as paddy, soybean, cotton, and pulses depend heavily on rainfall received during June and the early part of July. If monsoon activity revives by the end of June, the overall impact may remain limited. However, if dry conditions persist into July, the consequences for agricultural production and rural livelihoods could be significant, making the current monsoon pause a matter of national concern.