Bangladesh has repeatedly alleged that the Farakka Barrage has contributed to recurring water shortages in the country. The Farakka structure is among India’s largest river barrages and was constructed to divert Ganges water into the Bhagirathi-Hooghly River system in order to maintain adequate water flow for flushing and sustaining the Kolkata port.
The newly proposed Padma Barrage is projected to have a storage capacity of 2,900 million cusecs of water, and officials claim it will serve as a major lifeline for approximately 65 million people across southwestern and northern Bangladesh.
According to a report by The Hindu, the Bangladesh government plans to invest approximately 39,170 crore rupees over the next seven years for the construction of this large-scale infrastructure project. The initiative is being presented domestically as a major developmental intervention for water security and regional stability.
Under the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, water distribution from the Farakka Barrage is regulated between India and Bangladesh. When river flow reaches 70,000 cusecs, the water is to be equally shared between the two countries. During the dry season between March and May, a minimum of 35,000 cusecs is allocated to each country in 10-day intervals. The treaty is scheduled to expire in December 2026, and both nations have confirmed that discussions are underway regarding its extension.
Reports attributed to The Hindu also state that Bangladesh has suffered significant ecological consequences due to the diversion of Ganges waters through the Farakka Barrage. The altered flow has reportedly changed the natural course and ecology of the river system in Bangladesh, which depends heavily on the Ganges basin for nearly one-third of its territory.
It is further claimed that multiple rivers in Bangladesh have dried up due to reduced water flow, contributing to a sharp decline in groundwater levels across several regions. Reduced freshwater inflow into the Sundarbans has also been highlighted as a major concern. Experts warn that rising sea levels could potentially inundate up to 17 percent of Bangladesh’s land area within 150 years, potentially displacing around 20 million people.
Bangladesh authorities have stated that the Padma Barrage will be financed domestically, although experts argue that the country may lack the necessary engineering capacity and financial resources. As a result, there is speculation that China could be involved in the project, given its expanding footprint in infrastructure development across the region.
Concerns have also been raised in India regarding China’s increasing presence near strategically sensitive zones, including the Siliguri Corridor, often referred to as the “Chicken’s Neck,” which connects mainland India to its northeastern states. Analysts suggest that Bangladesh’s engagement with China in such projects could heighten regional geopolitical sensitivities.
Experts further claim that the Tariq Rahman administration’s infrastructure push may be aimed at increasing diplomatic leverage over India. During a 2016 visit to Bangladesh, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that China and Bangladesh “drink the water of the same rivers,” underscoring Beijing’s interest in transboundary water cooperation. China has already expanded its influence in South and Southeast Asia through major hydropower and dam projects, including large-scale developments on the Mekong River.
China is also reported to be constructing one of the world’s largest dams on the Brahmaputra River, which could have downstream implications for Bangladesh. Meanwhile, Bangladesh has indicated that its bilateral relations with India will be influenced by progress on the Ganges Water Sharing Treaty. Reports also suggest that Tariq Rahman is expected to visit China, where discussions may include the proposed barrage and the Teesta water-sharing issue.
The evolving developments surrounding the Padma Barrage highlight intensifying geopolitical competition, deepening water security concerns, and a fragile regional balance across South Asia’s shared river systems.
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