According to official reports, the agreement for the fighter jets is likely to be signed early next year. Of the 114 aircraft, 18 are expected to be delivered from France in a flyaway condition, while the remaining 96 jets will be manufactured in India under a local production arrangement. However, even under the current timeline, the first of the 18 imported aircraft is not expected to arrive in India before 2032, as indicated in reports. If the previous Rafale procurement cycle of 36 aircraft is used as a reference, the Indian Air Force may not receive its first aircraft for at least four years after signing the contract. Since then, Dassault Aviation’s order book for the Rafale has expanded significantly, now exceeding 150 aircraft.
The development comes at a critical time for the Indian Air Force, which is currently operating at a squadron strength of 29, against an authorised strength of 42.5 squadrons. The force is projected to lose the equivalent strength of 12 squadrons, further deepening its operational shortfall.
Indigenous fighter development programmes have also faced delays. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited has yet to deliver any Tejas Mk-1A aircraft under contract, with production setbacks attributed to integration challenges and delays in engine supplies. Another key programme, the Tejas Mk-2, has also encountered schedule disruptions. Initially expected to complete its first flight in 2025, the aircraft has still not been rolled out, pushing back the development timeline further.
While the Rafale is classified as a 4.5-generation multirole combat aircraft, experts note that it cannot independently compensate for the numerical deficit, particularly in a potential two-front conflict scenario. In such a scenario, Pakistan is expected to deploy upgraded J-10 and JF-17 aircraft equipped with advanced active electronically scanned array radars, while China fields more advanced J-16 fighters and fifth-generation J-20 stealth aircraft.
On the technological front, Rafale aircraft offer advanced avionics, electronic warfare systems, and precision strike capabilities. The RBE2 radar, developed by Thales, currently uses gallium arsenide technology, while competing platforms increasingly employ gallium nitride-based radars that provide greater range and improved resilience. Thales is reportedly developing an upgraded variant of the radar incorporating gallium nitride technology to enhance performance.
Concerns also persist over dependence on imported platforms, with potential risks of cost escalation. The overall procurement is estimated at 3.25 trillion rupees for the 114 aircraft program.
Strategic emphasis is also being placed on accelerating indigenous combat aircraft development. The Tejas Mk-2 programme is expected to play a key role in replacing aging MiG and Jaguar fleets with a more advanced fighter platform. Parallel development of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft is seen as essential to providing fifth-generation stealth capability to counter emerging threats.
Ultimately, while the acquisition of 114 Rafale fighters will significantly enhance the Indian Air Force’s combat capability, it is not sufficient on its own to address the structural shortfall in squadron strength. A balanced airpower strategy integrating imported platforms with indigenous systems such as the Tejas Mk-2, the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft, and unmanned combat aerial vehicles is considered essential for building a future-ready and operationally resilient air force.
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