MONSOON WILL NOT ABANDON INDIA, BUT EXTREME WEATHER RISKS ARE RISING, SAYS LEADING CLIMATE EXPERT

The southwest monsoon has already shown signs of uncertainty this year. It is running late over Kerala, while the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected seasonal rainfall at around 90 percent of the Long Period Average, with a margin of error of four percent. The forecast indicates that below-normal rainfall is the most likely outcome for the June-to-September monsoon season.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has stated that the current outlook points to a weaker-than-normal monsoon performance overall. At a time when concerns over global warming and increasingly unpredictable weather patterns are intensifying, these early indicators have raised questions about the long-term future of India's monsoon system.

Addressing these concerns, Professor Anil K. Gupta of the Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, former Director of the Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology in Dehradun and one of India's leading experts on monsoon history, said there is no scientific basis for fears that the monsoon could vanish.

According to Professor Gupta, geological evidence shows that the monsoon has existed over the Indian subcontinent for approximately 13 million years. He explained that the phenomenon is fundamentally linked to the unique configuration of the Indian peninsula and the Himalayan mountain range, which together create the atmospheric conditions necessary for the seasonal reversal of winds and rainfall.

"The monsoon has been in this landmass for the last 13 million years. As long as we have the present-day landmass configuration, the monsoon will remain," Professor Gupta said.

The timescale is extraordinary. For more than 13 million years, the monsoon has persisted through major climatic shifts and environmental transformations. Professor Gupta emphasized that the geographical framework sustaining the monsoon is not expected to change in the foreseeable future.

"As long as the Indian landmass remains similar, peninsular land to the south and high Himalayas in the north, the monsoon will continue," he said.

However, the continuity of the monsoon does not guarantee stability. Paleoclimate records reveal that the system has undergone dramatic fluctuations throughout history. One of the most significant episodes occurred approximately 4,200 years ago, when a severe drought affected large parts of Asia and triggered widespread population movements.

"We see there is an event that happened around 4,200 years ago. During that time, the whole Asian landmass suffered a major drought event and population migration was rampant," Professor Gupta said. "Such extreme events have been in the monsoon system in the past."

These fluctuations occurred long before significant human influence on the climate, demonstrating that natural variability has always been a defining feature of the monsoon system.

Professor Gupta also placed modern concerns about human-induced climate change in a broader historical context. While acknowledging the impact of global warming, he noted that the magnitude of natural monsoon variability observed over thousands of years remains substantial.

"As compared to natural variability, the human interference is not that alarming," he said, highlighting that major swings in monsoon intensity have occurred even in the absence of anthropogenic influences.

Rather than eliminating the monsoon, climate change is expected to amplify its extremes. Drawing on long-term climatic records, Professor Gupta said future monsoons are likely to produce more intense and uneven rainfall patterns.

"We expect based on our past data, the monsoon will have more extreme events," he said. "Some areas will have more precipitation, flood-like situations, whereas other areas might have deficient rains similar to drought."

The findings point toward a future in which floods and droughts become more frequent and rainfall distribution becomes increasingly uneven across regions. Different parts of the country could simultaneously experience excessive rainfall and severe water shortages, even if the overall monsoon system grows stronger.

Professor Gupta further explained that rising temperatures over the Indian landmass could intensify monsoon dynamics by strengthening atmospheric circulation and increasing moisture transport.

"As we have more warming in the landmass, we will have more strong winds and more precipitation over the landmass," he said, citing evidence gathered from studies spanning several thousand years.

For a nation whose agriculture, water security and economy remain closely tied to monsoon rainfall, the message carries both reassurance and caution. The monsoon, according to geological and climatic evidence, is not at risk of disappearing. However, its future behaviour may become increasingly volatile, demanding greater preparedness for extreme weather events.

Summing up his assessment, Professor Gupta said, "Monsoon has been the soul of our nation. It has remained so. It will remain so."

While the 2026 monsoon season may be showing signs of weakness and forecasts point toward below-normal rainfall, the deeper climatic history of the Indian subcontinent tells a far more enduring story. For 13 million years, the monsoon has sustained ecosystems, agriculture and human civilization across the region. That remarkable record suggests the monsoon is not about to abandon India, even as climate change reshapes the way it behaves.