High-Altitude Regions of Jammu and Kashmir Warm by Nearly 1°C in Two Decades, Climate Study Warns of Serious Himalayan Risks

The study, titled "Warming of the High-Mountainous Climate Sensitive Jammu and Kashmir During the Period 1980–2024," found that the mid-elevation station of Bhaderwah has recorded an increase in annual average temperatures of approximately 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade. This translates to a total rise approaching 1 degree Celsius since the beginning of the century. In contrast, lower-altitude areas have remained comparatively stable, while the plains of Jammu have even recorded a slight cooling trend of nearly 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade.

The research highlights that the most significant climatic changes are occurring during the night. Minimum temperatures, which represent the coldest part of the night, are increasing substantially faster than daytime temperatures. Across middle and high-altitude locations, nighttime temperatures have risen between 0.1 and 0.5 degrees Celsius every decade. During the pre-monsoon season, this increase reached as high as 0.6 degrees Celsius per decade, pushing the cumulative rise beyond 1 degree Celsius within the last twenty years. By comparison, daytime maximum temperatures across the region have shown only modest increases.

Scientists concluded that the accelerated warming in the mountains is being driven primarily by asymmetrical local factors rather than a uniform global climate trend. The sharp rise in nighttime temperatures is closely associated with declining local humidity levels and changes in surface albedo, the measure of how much solar radiation is reflected by the ground. The researchers explained that Jammu and Kashmir's highly varied topography, extending from approximately 1 kilometre to more than 6 kilometres above sea level, causes these climate processes to behave differently at different elevations.

The researchers cautioned that a temperature increase of nearly 1 degree Celsius within just two decades could have far-reaching consequences for the fragile Himalayan ecosystem. They warned that continued warming may disrupt seasonal water availability, accelerate glacier melt, and significantly alter agricultural patterns across the region, underscoring the growing vulnerability of the climate-sensitive Western Himalayas.