Persistently elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to remain key factors influencing investor sentiment. WTI crude is trading around $97–$98 a barrel, while Brent remains above $108, adding to uncertainty over the broader market outlook and the performance of oil-sensitive sectors. Sustained strength in energy prices could also weigh on the rupee.
“Indian equity markets are likely to remain cautious through the session, with persistently elevated crude oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty keeping macroeconomic risks in focus. WTI crude is trading around $97–$98 a barrel, while Brent remains above $108, adding to uncertainty over the broader market outlook and the performance of oil-sensitive sectors. Sustained strength in energy prices could also weigh on the rupee,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
The Indian stock market ended Friday's session in positive territory, extending gains for the second consecutive session. The Sensex advanced more than 400 points, while the Nifty 50 reclaimed the 23,100 mark. Information technology stocks led the rally, with the sector gaining over 3% amid sustained momentum driven by corporate earnings.
GIFT Nifty was trading around 23,117, down nearly 2.20 points, or 0.01%, from the previous close of Nifty futures, indicating a muted opening for Indian stock market indices.
Sensex Outlook
The Sensex closed at 74,729.27, gaining 413.66 points, or 0.56%. The benchmark extended its recovery, supported by buying interest in technology, metal and auto stocks. The index sustained its upward momentum and ended the week on a positive note, reflecting improving sentiment across the market.
Commenting on the Sensex outlook, Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said, “Overall, the Sensex outlook remains sideways to bullish, supported by the strong weekly recovery and improving momentum indicators. Sustaining above 73,900–74,100 could keep the upward bias intact and help the index challenge the 75,000–75,300 resistance zone. A decisive breakout above this range may attract fresh buying, while failure to cross resistance could lead to consolidation or profit-booking. Traders should monitor price action around these key levels and changes in open interest before taking fresh directional positions.”
Nifty 50 Outlook
The Nifty index began the week at 22,593.20, opening around 72 points above the previous close. Initial selling pressure dragged the index to a weekly low of 22,288.45, where strong buying interest emerged.
The index subsequently staged a sharp recovery of nearly 860 points, reaching a weekly high of 23,149.85 on the final trading day before closing at 23,146.15. The index gained 625.70 points, or 2.78%, over the week. The recovery reflected renewed buying interest at lower levels and an improvement in near-term market sentiment.
On the Nifty 50 outlook, brokerage firm Choice Broking said, “Technically, Nifty has staged a meaningful rebound from the 200-Week EMA and rising trendline support, improving the short-term outlook. The strong bullish weekly candle indicates renewed demand at lower levels, although the index is yet to reclaim the 50-Week EMA. A sustained move above the immediate resistance zone would strengthen the recovery, while holding above the recent support base remains important to preserve the improving structure.”
US Markets Performance
Wall Street futures resumed trading higher on Sunday evening local time, recovering some ground after technology-heavy indices, particularly the Nasdaq, recorded their steepest weekly losses since June last week. However, US index futures showed mixed movements.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.55% at 51,891.77 points.
S&P 500 futures were trading 20–25 points higher. However, the index fell nearly 2% during the week.
Nasdaq futures gained around 250 points. However, the Nasdaq declined 2.19% to 26,128.13 points.
South Korea's Kospi Opens Sharply Lower
South Korean equities fell sharply at Monday’s opening, tracking a technology-led sell-off on Wall Street amid growing concerns about whether massive investments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure will deliver adequate returns.
The benchmark Kospi plunged 179.64 points, or 3.17%, to open at 5,488.41. Meanwhile, the small-cap Kosdaq Index fell 0.93%.
The cautious signals from GIFT Nifty, weakness across Asian markets and elevated crude oil prices put the focus on global cues as Indian equities prepare to begin Monday’s session. The Sensex and Nifty 50 enter the day after a strong weekly recovery, while technical resistance levels, energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty remain central to the market outlook.
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