In September 2016, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, addressing a public rally in Kerala following the killing of 18 Indian soldiers in an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, declared that India would intensify efforts to isolate Pakistan internationally. He stated that Pakistan’s leadership would be globally cornered and that the sacrifice of Indian soldiers would not go in vain. The remarks came in the aftermath of heightened tensions following cross-border militancy incidents.
However, nearly a decade later, Pakistan has emerged with strengthened diplomatic positioning rather than isolation. It has developed deeper strategic alignment with China, expanded engagement with the United States, and re-established itself as a relevant interlocutor in major geopolitical negotiations.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently visited China, while Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir and Sharif have also held meetings with US President Donald Trump at the White House over the past year. Pakistan has also been described as a mediator between the United States and Iran during ongoing hostilities, while Trump has repeatedly praised Pakistani leadership.
Analysts argue that Pakistan’s diplomatic resurgence reflects both effective engagement strategies and changing global conditions, while also highlighting limitations in India’s foreign policy approach. According to Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council, India’s attempt to isolate Pakistan has ultimately “backfired,” with Pakistan successfully re-establishing itself as a key regional actor.
On 10 May 2025, President Donald Trump announced that the United States had mediated a “full and immediate ceasefire” between India and Pakistan following four days of intense military confrontation involving ballistic missiles, fighter jets, and drones. The conflict, described as the most severe escalation in decades, resulted in casualties on both sides.
The violence was triggered after Indian strikes on alleged militant infrastructure inside Pakistani territory, following an attack in Indian-administered Kashmir in which 26 tourists were killed. Pakistan acknowledged Trump’s role in facilitating the ceasefire, while India maintained that the agreement was achieved through bilateral channels without third-party mediation.
Trump repeatedly claimed credit for brokering the ceasefire, stating on multiple occasions that he had prevented a potential nuclear escalation. He also asserted that Indian aircraft were shot down during the conflict, echoing Pakistani claims, though India initially remained silent before later acknowledging losses of fighter jets without confirming numbers.
The differing narratives intensified diplomatic friction between New Delhi and Washington. India also rejected any suggestion of external mediation on Kashmir, maintaining its long-standing position that the issue is strictly bilateral.
Tensions between India and the United States further deepened during this period due to trade disputes, tariffs, visa restrictions affecting Indian professionals, and disagreements over energy imports, including Russian crude oil purchases and sanctions-related policy differences.
Despite decades of strategic partnership, including cooperation through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue involving India, the United States, Japan, and Australia, recent developments have indicated a recalibration of Washington’s regional priorities.
Pakistan, meanwhile, strengthened ties with China, including defence cooperation involving missile systems and fighter aircraft used during recent military escalation. Chinese President Xi Jinping described China–Pakistan relations as “unbreakable” during Prime Minister Sharif’s visit.
Pakistan also expanded engagement with Gulf nations. A mutual defence agreement with Saudi Arabia was announced in September 2025, with discussions reportedly extending to other regional actors, including Türkiye and additional Gulf Cooperation Council members.
At the same time, Pakistan pursued economic engagement with the United States, including agreements on critical minerals and cryptocurrency-related investments, alongside a reported 500 million dollar investment proposal in rare earth elements by a US firm.
In contrast, India’s regional diplomatic architecture has experienced strain. Following the 2016 breakdown in relations, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation summit was cancelled after India boycotted the meeting hosted by Pakistan. Since then, regional cooperation under SAARC has remained inactive, while India has promoted alternative frameworks such as BIMSTEC, which excludes Pakistan.
Regional dynamics further shifted following political changes in Bangladesh after the removal of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, leading to improved Pakistan–Bangladesh relations.
India’s evolving foreign policy has also included closer alignment with Israel. New Delhi has emerged as a major defence partner of Israel, increasing abstentions on United Nations resolutions concerning the Israel–Palestine conflict and maintaining a neutral position on recent Gaza developments, which some international observers have described as genocide. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel shortly before the Iran conflict drew criticism from opposition parties, who argued it affected India’s diplomatic balance in West Asia.
This alignment has coincided with increased criticism from Gulf countries following controversial remarks made in India regarding Prophet Muhammad in 2022, which led to diplomatic protests and public condemnation across the region.
Historically, India maintained strong support for Palestinian statehood and was among the earliest countries to recognise Palestinian political representation. However, its contemporary policy reflects a closer strategic relationship with Israel.
Within India’s domestic and foreign policy framework, analysts argue that a shift has occurred from non-alignment to a more transactional global posture. This includes reduced engagement with Iranian oil imports following United States sanctions and broader alignment with Western strategic priorities.
In contrast, Pakistan has been described by some analysts as increasingly capable of engaging simultaneously with Washington, Beijing, Riyadh, and Tehran, positioning itself as a flexible diplomatic actor in a multipolar environment.
Security concerns between India and Pakistan remain unresolved, particularly over Kashmir, a heavily militarised region with hundreds of thousands of deployed troops and a long history of conflict resulting in significant civilian casualties. In 2019, following an attack in Pulwama that killed 40 Indian soldiers, India conducted airstrikes in Balakot, marking another major escalation.
The broader strategic environment has also been influenced by competing narratives regarding terrorism, regional security, and international legitimacy, with both countries attempting to shape global perceptions of their positions.
Recent reports suggest limited backchannel diplomatic engagement between retired officials and military figures from both sides, indicating tentative efforts to reopen dialogue.
Analysts continue to warn that without sustained diplomatic mechanisms, the risk of renewed escalation remains high. Some experts have proposed confidence-building measures, including demilitarised buffer zones along the Line of Control under international supervision, while others stress the need for structured bilateral engagement to prevent further conflict.
As geopolitical alignments continue to evolve, the India–Pakistan equation remains central to South Asian stability, shaped increasingly by external powers including the United States, China, and Gulf states, alongside enduring disputes that remain unresolved since independence in 1947.
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