The Iran war and the threat of tariffs from the United States have destabilised the global energy market for both countries opposed to Washington and its allies. This has also kept uncertainty high over the future of the global economy.
Against this backdrop, BRICS countries are holding their summit. However, there is little likelihood that BRICS will issue a joint statement openly criticising the United States or agree on a common strategy to counter Trump’s policies and geopolitics. The reason is that BRICS members themselves remain divided over how far the group should go in confronting the US.
Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the BBC that India “cannot risk issuing a joint statement that criticises the US.”
According to Kugelman, criticism of US policies is unlikely to be explicit or direct. The expansion of BRICS has brought together countries whose interests differ considerably. While Russia and Iran would want BRICS to take a clearer position against President Trump, the geopolitical realities among BRICS members make such a move difficult.
Reports have also suggested that India is in the final stages of negotiating a trade deal with the United States. In such circumstances, New Delhi would not want a statement that could anger Washington. China, too, may not want to create the impression that it is using BRICS to target the United States.
The UAE faces a different set of considerations. Iran carried out attacks on the UAE in response to US and Israeli attacks, while the UAE also hosts US military bases. This makes it difficult for Abu Dhabi to support any statement that could benefit Iran.
Kugelman said the expansion of BRICS has made the group more important, but reaching a common position among all its members has also become more difficult.
According to Kugelman, several countries have joined the grouping despite having poor relations with one another. He said India faces the challenge of bringing together countries whose positions on the global order are significantly different.
US President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken out against BRICS, particularly its efforts to reduce dependence on the US dollar in global trade. This is commonly described as moving away from the dollar, or “de-dollarisation.”
Trump has repeatedly warned BRICS countries, particularly over any attempt to introduce a new currency as an alternative to the US dollar or take steps to reduce the dollar’s dominance in global trade.
In November 2024, Trump said BRICS countries would face 100 per cent tariffs if they supported another currency instead of the strong US dollar.
The question, therefore, is what BRICS can achieve.
Over the past decade, BRICS has significantly expanded its geopolitical and economic influence. However, the group is expected to avoid openly taking a position against the United States or Western countries.
Even so, BRICS is likely to build on its achievements so far and seek to demonstrate that it can emerge as an alternative to groups such as the G20 and G7.
According to an analysis by BBC Monitoring, countries in BRICS are home to 49 per cent of the world’s population. The group represents 40 per cent of global GDP and 26 per cent of international trade.
The New Development Bank is BRICS’s biggest achievement. The bank has approved billions of dollars for infrastructure and development projects, many of them in the Global South, or developing countries.
The group has also created a $100 billion reserve fund to assist member countries facing financial crises. However, the fund has not been used so far.
BRICS leaders may also discuss ways to make payments between countries in local currencies easier. Russia and Iran are likely to have particular interest in this issue because both face stringent US sanctions.
BRICS will continue to present itself as a grouping that stands with developing countries. The group is also expected to demand reforms at institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Many developing countries believe these institutions no longer properly reflect the changing global order.
For India in particular, the summit provides an opportunity to strengthen its claim to leadership of the Global South.
Several priorities of India’s foreign policy align with the BRICS agenda, including a multilateral system, a more multipolar world, greater representation for developing countries and efforts to make global trade more open.
At the same time, India will have to navigate China’s growing influence within BRICS and its expanding presence across the developing world.
The Narendra Modi government has placed considerable emphasis on becoming a leader or voice of the Global South. However, Kugelman said India’s efforts to expand its reach in Africa and Latin America have achieved limited success. China has been more successful than India in these regions.
Most BRICS members have developing economies. Kugelman said the expansion of BRICS gives India an opportunity to strengthen relations with countries such as Ethiopia, Brazil and Indonesia and increase its presence in Africa and Latin America.
The real test for India will be whether it can secure a joint statement with the agreement of all member countries. This is often considered a measure of the diplomatic success of a host country.
However, deep differences exist among members over the Iran war, relations with the United States and the future of global trade. Reaching agreement on a joint statement will therefore be difficult.
The challenge became clear as early as May, when BRICS foreign ministers failed to reach agreement on a joint statement because of differences over the Iran war. India, as host, subsequently issued a summary of the meeting.
India’s experience hosting the G20 in 2023 could prove useful. At that time, countries were also deeply divided over the Russia-Ukraine war, but India succeeded in securing a joint statement.
India will also want the summit to produce important announcements and highlight BRICS’s achievements so far. Member countries are likely to agree on this point. None of them will want BRICS to be dismissed simply as a “talking shop.”
BRICS members may discuss ways to expand financial cooperation, and some major announcements could emerge. They will also discuss major global issues. Any reference to the United States in the statement is likely to be carefully worded to avoid direct confrontation with Washington. The US, meanwhile, will be watching the meeting closely.
Several important bilateral meetings will also take place during the summit. All eyes will be on the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday.
India and China are gradually improving their relations, but progress so far has not been as fast as both countries had expected.
Prime Minister Modi has also met Russian President Vladimir Putin.
During the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting in Bishkek last month, Modi appealed to Putin for peace.
Some people viewed his remarks as criticism of Russia, but Russia did not interpret them in that way. Russia publicly welcomed Modi’s efforts for peace.
Apart from geopolitics, India’s growing trade deficit with Russia and China could also become an important issue in talks with both countries.
Ultimately, BRICS will be focused on holding a successful summit, as this would further strengthen the group’s influence.
For host India, the summit would also represent a major diplomatic and geopolitical achievement.
This comes at a time when India is seeking to strengthen its influence internationally. Kugelman said a great deal is at stake for India at the summit.
According to him, India has appeared to lose some ground in recent times because of Pakistan’s growing diplomatic role in the Middle East. Pakistan has also played a role in efforts to mediate over the Iran war.
He said the summit is “an important opportunity for India to reassert its importance and leadership in the world. That is why there is a lot at stake at this conference.”
Kugelman said the summit is more important for host India than for BRICS as a whole.
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