The report said India’s record wheat harvest and surplus position have created room to expand exports while meeting domestic food security needs. “India is entering one of the most promising phases in the global wheat trade in recent years,” ASSOCHAM said, pointing to the gradual reopening of exports in 2026 after restrictions were maintained for nearly four years.
The government has also shifted the export policy for specified wheat varieties, wheat flour and related products from “Prohibited” to “Free”. The change covers wheat, durum wheat, atta, maida and semolina/rava, the report said.
India produced a record 120.7 million tonnes (MMT) of wheat in 2025-26, retaining its position as the world’s second-largest wheat producer. Wheat stocks in the Central Pool stood at 51.3 MMT as of May 28, 2026, against the prescribed buffer norm of 27.58 MMT for July 1.
Despite the surplus, India’s current export volume remains small compared with the level its production can support, leaving “considerable scope to increase wheat exports in the coming years”, according to the report.
India also has a price advantage in global markets. Its wheat MSP for FY2026-27 was equivalent to around USD 268 per tonne, compared with an international wheat price of about USD 303 per tonne in May 2026, creating a difference of nearly USD 35 per tonne.
Bangladesh offers the strongest opportunity for Indian wheat, while Egypt, Indonesia, Algeria, Morocco and the Philippines could provide scope for gradual expansion. Bangladesh imported about 6.7 MMT of wheat in 2024-25 and India is already among its key suppliers.
The report said global wheat production is projected to ease to around 819 MMT in 2026-27 from a record 843.8 MMT in 2025-26, partly due to weather-related challenges in major exporting countries.
At the same time, major importers are seeking more diversified and reliable suppliers, creating an opportunity for India to strengthen its position in global markets.
However, the report noted that long-term success would depend on consistent quality, better logistics, improved storage and testing facilities, and greater clarity in export policies.
“With a gradual and predictable approach to exports, along with investment in storage, transport and port infrastructure development, India can become a more reliable global wheat supplier,” the report said.
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