India’s Steel Output Surges 11% as Global Production Slows Amid China’s Prolonged Decline

India’s crude steel production rose sharply by 11 per cent year-on-year in March 2026, reaching 15.3 million tonnes. This growth stands in stark contrast to the global trend, where total steel output declined by 4 per cent year-on-year to approximately 159.9 million tonnes. The global performance was weighed down significantly by weakness in major producing countries, particularly China.

China, the world’s largest steel producer, recorded 87 million tonnes of output in March but continued its downward trajectory with a 6 per cent year-on-year decline, marking its eleventh consecutive month of contraction. Despite a 12 per cent month-on-month rise in global production, the increase was largely attributed to a low base effect in February rather than sustained demand recovery.

For the full financial year 2026, India maintained strong momentum in steel production, expanding by 11 per cent year-on-year to 167.8 million tonnes. In contrast, global steel output excluding India declined by 2 per cent annually to 72.9 million tonnes, underscoring India’s strengthening position in the international steel market during a period of widespread weakness.

The report emphasized that China’s crude steel production remained under persistent pressure, while India consistently outperformed its global peers across both monthly and annual comparisons.

Price trends in April reflected mixed conditions across global markets. Steel prices strengthened in China, the United States, and Europe, while India’s domestic market experienced volatility following initial price increases. Domestic hot rolled coil prices increased by approximately 3 per cent month-on-month and 13 per cent year-on-year. However, gains were partially reversed later in the month due to weakening demand, slower trading activity at elevated price levels, and cautious sentiment following the announcement of a United States–Iran ceasefire.

Raw material markets also showed divergent trends. Australian iron ore prices rose by around 2 per cent month-on-month and 9 per cent year-on-year. In the domestic market, NMDC increased prices of lump and fine iron ore by 200 rupees per tonne each in early May, marking the fourth consecutive price hike since 9 January 2026.

In the coal segment, Australian coking coal prices recovered by 2 per cent during the month after a sharp decline in March. In contrast, South African non-coking coal prices fell by 3 per cent as demand shifted toward domestic supply sources.

Looking ahead, the report noted that firm pricing trends in key steelmaking raw materials, expectations of tighter flat steel supply due to maintenance shutdowns at major integrated steel plants, and a likely increase in pre-monsoon construction activity are expected to support domestic steel prices in the near term.

The findings underline India’s growing resilience and expanding influence in the global steel industry at a time when most major producers continue to face sustained pressure and declining output.