With neither major bloc reaching the required 61-seat threshold, Arab-led parties have emerged as kingmakers in the political negotiations that will determine Israel's next government. Netanyahu's Likud party is expected to secure 27 seats, making it the largest party in the Knesset.
A loss of office for Netanyahu could set off a series of developments he has been trying to avoid. He would face accountability over long-standing corruption charges, while a formal investigation would almost certainly be launched into the security lapses surrounding the devastating Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023.
Although Arab-led parties may not necessarily become part of a governing coalition, they could still exercise considerable influence by supporting Netanyahu's opponents in the next parliament. Their backing could prove crucial in electing a new Knesset speaker, giving them influence over the parliamentary agenda and potentially enabling them to advance and pass legislation before a new government is formed.
Netanyahu's main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has indicated that he is open to joining forces with Arab-led parties, subject to certain conditions. Ahmad Tibi, who is second on the Arab-led Joint List, told Army Radio that the opposition bloc had approached him to discuss replacing the Knesset speaker. He said his party would support the opposition bloc's candidate.
However, the political deadlock could lead to another election early next year if no new government is formed.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu's party on Thursday amplified unsubstantiated allegations that Arab-led parties had "stolen" the election, potentially with foreign assistance. The allegations emerged as the final results were expected to confirm that Netanyahu's bloc had lost its parliamentary majority.
The opposition accused Netanyahu of demonising Israel's Arab population following the historic performance of Arab-led parties. It alleged that the claims of election theft were an attempt to delegitimise their electoral gains.
With Netanyahu's bloc short of a majority, the opposition unable to secure enough seats independently and Arab-led parties holding 19 seats, their political position could prove decisive in determining the next phase of Israel's parliamentary leadership. If negotiations fail to produce a government, the country could head towards another general election early next year.
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