The election comes at a time of growing public demands for accountability over security failures, disagreements over military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, controversy surrounding judicial reforms and uncertainty over Israel’s political and diplomatic future.
Two main political blocs are competing to lead the next government, but opinion polls indicate that neither is on course to secure the 61 seats required for a parliamentary majority in the 120-member Knesset.
Under Israel’s electoral system, any party securing at least 3.25 percent of the vote can enter parliament. The Knesset serves a four-year term.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party leads the pro-Netanyahu coalition, which includes several far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties. These include United Torah Judaism (UTJ) and Shas, both conservative religious parties, alongside Otzma Yehudi and Religious Zionism-Zehut, led respectively by far-right ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
The main opposition coalition comprises four Jewish-led political movements: the Yashar party, led by former Israeli military chief Gadi Eisenkot; the Democrats, led by former deputy military chief of staff Yair Golan; the Yisrael Beiteinu party, led by former Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman; and the Together alliance, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and joined by Knesset opposition leader Yair Lapid.
The latest opinion polls published before a ban on new surveys took effect on Friday indicated that neither bloc was likely to win a majority. A poll by public broadcaster KAN projected that the opposition alliance would secure 52 seats, compared with 50 for Netanyahu’s bloc. The remaining seats were projected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the country’s two main Arab-majority political lists: Ra’am, also known as the United Arab List, and the Joint List, an alliance comprising Hadash, Balad and Ta’al.
Both the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs have effectively ruled out joining forces with the Arab-led parties for now. This fragmented political landscape could lead to difficult post-election negotiations as parties attempt to assemble a governing majority. If those efforts fail, Israel could end up with a minority government dependent on support from parties outside the governing coalition or face another round of elections.
Domestic and international crises are expected to shape the campaign. Within Israel, demands for accountability over reported security failures, including those preceding the October 2023 attacks, have intensified. Anger over the growing ultra-Orthodox community’s exemption from military service and concern about Netanyahu’s repeated attempts to advance judicial reforms have also become significant issues. Critics argue that the proposed reforms undermine Israel’s liberal democratic order.
“The secular and liberal opposition factions in Israel feel this election is the last chance to save Israeli democracy and restore the institutions that have eroded over Netanyahu’s successive terms,” Mairav Zonszein, an Israeli-American commentator and senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera.
A public exhausted by years of conflict is also weighing how Israel should proceed with its multiple military confrontations. Many voters are seeking security and economic stability while remaining resistant to perceived concessions in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Lebanon.
The election is particularly significant because it is Israel’s first since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. It is taking place amid rising far-right attitudes and growing divisions over the country’s political direction.
“Strains of Israeli society had always been given to violence and right-wing rhetoric, but the trends that had always been present had accelerated under the current government,” prominent Israeli sociologist Yehouda Shenhav-Shahrabani told Al Jazeera.
Israel’s international standing has also deteriorated. Several of its allies have imposed sanctions on its illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, while numerous other countries have condemned its continued attacks in Gaza and Lebanon.
When Netanyahu addressed the United Nations General Assembly on September 24, dozens of envoys from around the world walked out, with some jeering and booing during his speech.
The election result could determine whether Israel continues under Netanyahu’s leadership or moves towards a different political direction, with implications for domestic institutions, military policy and the country’s international relations.
Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, has led the country for more than 15 of the last 17 years and for a total of 19. He faces mounting scrutiny at home and abroad over alleged security failures preceding the October 7 attacks, as well as corruption charges he has been contesting since 2019.
An electoral defeat could leave Netanyahu more exposed in his ongoing corruption trial, which could ultimately result in a prison sentence if he is convicted. A change of government could also influence the prospects of establishing a commission of inquiry into the October 2023 attacks. Netanyahu is also facing an arrest warrant for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court.
Palestinian citizens of Israel are another important constituency in the election. Approximately 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote on Tuesday, including around 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel.
By contrast, approximately three million adult Palestinians living in Gaza, the occupied West Bank and occupied East Jerusalem have no say in choosing the government that controls their borders, movement and legal status.
Recent opinion polls suggested that turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel could reach 60 percent, with most votes expected to go to the Arab lists, which are the principal political representatives of Palestinian citizens of Israel. If turnout rises to 65 percent, these parties could potentially secure as many as 15 seats in the Knesset.
Campaigners are targeting a turnout of 70 percent, which would be the highest in decades and raise the electoral threshold, potentially keeping smaller parties out of parliament.
Last month, Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted to disqualify the Joint List and Ra’am from participating in the election. Israel’s top court quickly overturned the decision, allowing the Arab parties to remain in the race. However, the court required Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw from the contest over an article in which he described the October 7 attacks as “an important historical event”.
The Arab parties could play a decisive role in determining the next government. Although both major political blocs have ruled out joining forces with them for now, neither coalition may be able to secure a parliamentary majority without their support.
Netanyahu has repeatedly attempted to portray his opponents as potential partners of the Arab parties. According to Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Israeli Knesset member Ayman Odeh, politically isolating Arab parties is part of Netanyahu’s political strategy. This approach could help him remain in office as a caretaker prime minister if neither bloc manages to form a majority.
“If Palestinian-led party support becomes politically toxic and the opposition falls short of 61 seats, the deadlock itself becomes the latest win for Netanyahu,” Mansour wrote for the Arab Center Washington DC.
With neither major bloc projected to secure a majority, the election could leave Israel facing prolonged coalition negotiations and renewed political uncertainty. The outcome will shape Netanyahu’s political future, the role of Arab parties in parliament and the direction of a country confronting domestic divisions, continuing conflicts and mounting international pressure.
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