According to the study, supervised by the state-owned China Geological Survey and published last month in the Chinese-language journal Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology, the Paizhen Fault passes directly through the reservoir area of the hydropower project. Researchers warned that the fault has remained active since the Pleistocene, commonly known as the Ice Age, and could significantly affect the structural integrity of dams, bridges, roads, tunnels, and other infrastructure constructed in the region.
The Yarlung Tsangpo River flows into India's Arunachal Pradesh and Assam as the Brahmaputra River before entering Bangladesh as the Jamuna River, making the project strategically significant for all three countries.
The research team stated that the fault has fractured surrounding rocks and altered their mechanical properties, reducing the foundation bearing capacity and making nearby engineering structures more vulnerable to damage. The study further noted that the reservoir area's terrain has a loose geological structure and weak cohesion, increasing the risk of slope instability. Researchers warned that continued fault activity, earthquakes, and prolonged water immersion could easily trigger landslides and slope collapses on both sides of the reservoir.
Construction of the Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower project began last year. Once completed, it is expected to generate approximately 300 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, with a power generation capacity nearly three times greater than China's Three Gorges Dam.
The researchers stated that the Pai village area lies within the construction zone of the Yarlung Tsangpo downstream hydropower project, making its records of Quaternary tectonic activity an important scientific basis for assessing the structural stability of nearby engineering works.
The study also found that geological records indicate the Paizhen Fault remained active well into the Holocene period, with evidence showing fault movement as recently as approximately 9,500 years ago. Researchers cited the magnitude 6.9 Milin earthquake that struck Tibet in 2017 near the northern end of the fault as evidence of the fault's continuing seismic potential. According to the study, future earthquakes could trigger landslides and large-scale collapses, posing serious risks to engineering structures and personnel working in the area.
The research was conducted by scientists from Chengdu University of Technology, the Civil-Military Integration Centre of the China Geological Survey, and the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Natural Resources Observation and Research Station.
To reduce the identified risks, the study recommended strengthening structural stability throughout construction by reinforcing vulnerable slopes and installing retaining barriers to minimise the possibility of landslides and structural collapse. The findings underscore the engineering and geological challenges surrounding one of China's most ambitious hydropower projects, which continues to draw international attention because of its potential downstream consequences and the newly identified structural risks.
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