Retail Inflation Rises to 3.93% in May as Food Prices Strengthen; RBI Raises Full-Year Forecast
India's retail inflation rose to 3.93% in May 2026 from 3.48% in April driven by higher food prices, according to NSO data. Food inflation climbed to 4.78%. RBI raised FY inflation forecast to 5.1% citing energy-led input costs and fuel price hikes impacting CPI trajectory and monetary policy outlook ahead.
Consumer Price Index-based inflation in the food basket rose to 4.78 percent in May compared with 4.2 percent in April, reflecting continued pressure on essential food commodities.
Among individual items, precious metal jewellery, tomato, ginger, raisin, and monacca recorded the highest inflation during the month. In contrast, potato, peas, motor car and jeep, cumin, and motorcycle and scooter registered the lowest inflation rates at the all-India combined level.
The Reserve Bank of India, which primarily uses the Consumer Price Index to guide monetary policy, has been mandated by the government to maintain headline inflation at 4 percent, with a tolerance band of 2 percentage points on either side.
The central bank recently raised its inflation projection for the current financial year to 5.1 percent from 4.6 percent, citing rising input costs driven by the pass-through of higher global energy prices into retail petrol and diesel rates.
Since May, retail fuel prices have increased cumulatively by 7.4 percent for petrol and 8.4 percent for diesel, further intensifying cost pressures across the economy.
The Reserve Bank of India noted that the increase in fuel prices is expected to have a direct impact of around 36 basis points on headline inflation, with additional second-order effects likely to reflect in Consumer Price Index inflation in the coming months.
The latest inflation data underscores persistent price pressures in key consumption categories, posing continued challenges for monetary policy calibration and household purchasing power.

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