Prepared using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projections corrected for regional bias, the report focuses on the period between 2021 and 2040 and provides localized climate projections intended to support policymakers, administrators, and communities in planning adaptation measures. The findings reveal that climate change is no longer a distant environmental concern but an immediate reality affecting coastal districts across the country.
Anurag Behar, Chief Executive Officer of the Azim Premji Foundation, emphasized the urgency of the situation, stating that climate change is already a present-day challenge and that 2040 is only fourteen years away. He noted that the dataset highlights the immediate impacts of climate change and underlines the need to redesign infrastructure and governance systems to collectively address the growing crisis.
The report documents how climate-related changes are disrupting long-standing traditional knowledge systems. Rising wet-bulb temperatures in Kerala and intensifying monsoon patterns in Maharashtra are making conventional forecasting methods increasingly unreliable. One example cited is the traditional Nakaih wind calendar, which is losing its effectiveness due to shifting climatic conditions. The report aims to provide the foundational information required for local authorities to develop district-level climate resilience strategies.
Harini Nagendra, Director of the School of Climate Change and Sustainability at Azim Premji University, said the findings present a reality that can no longer be ignored. She stated that climate change was once viewed as a distant global issue, but the report demonstrates that the crisis has become highly localized and immediate. According to her, rising heat stress in Ernakulam and increasing salinity in the Sundarbans illustrate how climate vulnerability is affecting everyday life. She stressed the importance of moving from reactive mitigation measures to proactive adaptation strategies to address the ecological challenges facing the country.
The report highlights significant environmental changes expected across the western coastline, particularly in Maharashtra and Gujarat. Suburban Mumbai is projected to experience an increase of 1.3 degrees Celsius in maximum summer temperatures, reinforcing the need for heat-resilient urban planning. Seasonal rainfall is also expected to intensify considerably. Suburban Mumbai could witness nearly an additional week of heavy rainfall, while Surat and Bhavnagar are projected to receive 23 percent and 24 percent more Southwest Monsoon rainfall respectively compared with historical averages.
These climatic shifts are already affecting traditional livelihoods. Members of Mumbai’s Koli fishing community report financial losses when unpredictable rainfall interrupts the traditional process of drying prawns. The report states that such disruptions are becoming increasingly common as weather patterns grow more erratic.
Across India’s coastal districts, average temperatures are projected to rise by approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius, with nearly forty coastal districts expected to record summer temperature increases exceeding one degree Celsius. Coastal regions of Kerala and Tamil Nadu are forecast to experience dangerously high wet-bulb temperatures approaching 31 degrees Celsius, a level considered hazardous to human health.
Among all coastal districts, Ernakulam is projected to record the highest increase in maximum summer temperatures, reaching approximately 1.3 degrees Celsius above historical levels. Meanwhile, coastal Maharashtra and Gujarat are expected to experience significantly heavier rainfall during the monsoon season, increasing the risk of flooding and associated infrastructure challenges.
The report also raises concerns over sea-level rise and coastal erosion. Under the SSP2-4.5 moderate emissions scenario, global sea levels are projected to rise by approximately 15 centimeters by 2050. This increase is expected to accelerate coastal erosion and could contribute to the emergence of abandoned settlements, often referred to as “ghost villages,” in vulnerable areas such as Ganjam district in Odisha.
Climate scientists involved in the study have also identified an increasing risk of powerful tropical cyclones. Sea surface temperatures are rising at an estimated rate of 0.27 degrees Celsius per decade, creating conditions that could intensify cyclone formation and severity along India’s coastline.
The report further documents growing challenges for traditional occupations. In Goa, unseasonal rainfall is reportedly destroying entire salt harvests within hours. Simultaneously, warming ocean waters are pushing fish populations farther offshore, leaving many small-scale fishermen struggling with declining catches and increasing operational costs.
Public health concerns are also becoming more pronounced. In the Sundarbans region, recurring embankment breaches and rising salinity levels are being linked to increased cases of skin diseases and menstrual health complications among women, illustrating the broader social consequences of climate change.
Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, was established under the Azim Premji University Act, 2010 enacted by the Government of Karnataka. Azim Premji University, Bhopal, was established under the Madhya Pradesh Niji Vishwa Vidyalaya (Sthapana Avam Sanchalan) Dwitiya Sanshodhan Adhiniyam, 2022, while Azim Premji University in Ranchi is being established under the Azim Premji University Act, 2022 passed by the Government of Jharkhand. All three institutions have been established by the Azim Premji Foundation as fully philanthropic universities dedicated to advancing a just, equitable, humane, and sustainable society.
The report serves as a stark warning that India’s coastal regions are approaching a critical climate threshold. With rising temperatures, intensified monsoons, accelerating sea-level rise, stronger cyclones, and growing threats to public health and traditional livelihoods, the findings underscore the urgent need for immediate adaptation measures, resilient infrastructure planning, and coordinated governance to safeguard millions of people living along the country’s coastline.
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