The study, titled “Beating the Heat: How Air Conditioner Efficiency Standards Help India Avert Power Shortages and Cut Consumer Bills,” warns that the rapid growth of air conditioner usage is emerging as one of the biggest threats to India’s power grid. India currently adds nearly 10 to 15 million new air conditioners every year, while another 130 to 150 million units are expected to enter the market over the next decade.
Researchers said air conditioners have become the single largest contributor to peak electricity demand, accounting for nearly 60 to 70 gigawatts, or almost 25 percent of total peak demand. The study highlighted that each air conditioner consumes nearly 100 to 150 times more electricity than an LED bulb, placing enormous pressure on the national power infrastructure.
The findings come at a time when India is witnessing record-breaking electricity demand amid an intense heatwave. On May 21, the country crossed 270 gigawatts of peak power demand, surpassing the previous day’s record of 265.44 gigawatts, according to the Power Ministry. The India Meteorological Department has warned that extreme daytime temperatures are expected to continue throughout the week.
The report cautioned that without immediate policy intervention, air conditioners alone could contribute 120 gigawatts of peak power demand by 2030 and nearly 180 gigawatts by 2035. This would account for more than 30 percent of the country’s projected peak electricity demand.
Nikit Abhyankar, lead author of the study and faculty member at the University of California, Berkeley, said the growth of air conditioner usage is outpacing the capacity of the power grid, especially after sunset when electricity demand surges sharply.
“Air conditioners are already contributing 60 to 70 gigawatts to peak demand, and their growth is outpacing the grid’s ability to keep up after sunset. Without intervention, India risks blackouts or expensive emergency measures. However, with effective policy decisions, this challenge can become a major opportunity for consumers, manufacturers, and the electricity grid,” Abhyankar said.
The study strongly recommended a long-term policy roadmap aimed at steadily increasing energy efficiency standards for air conditioners. It referred to the Bureau of Energy Efficiency’s proposed 2028 revision of air conditioner standards, which would raise the minimum efficiency threshold by 25 percent, equivalent to a one-star increase.
Researchers further recommended that by 2033, the most energy-efficient air conditioners currently available in India, which perform better than the existing five-star rating with an Indian Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio of 6.7, should become the minimum mandatory standard nationwide.
According to the study, such measures could reduce India’s peak electricity demand by 10 gigawatts by 2030 and by nearly 47 gigawatts by 2035. This reduction would be equivalent to avoiding the construction of almost 100 large power plants and could save nearly ₹8 lakh crore, or approximately $80 billion, in avoided power infrastructure investments.
The report also emphasized that highly efficient air conditioners would deliver major financial benefits to consumers despite slightly higher purchase prices. Researchers estimated that consumers could collectively save between ₹90,000 crore and ₹2.4 lakh crore by 2035 through reduced electricity bills. The additional upfront cost of efficient air conditioners could be recovered within two to three years through lower energy consumption.
Amol Phadke, co-author of the study and faculty member at the University of California, Berkeley, rejected concerns that higher efficiency standards would automatically make air conditioners unaffordable.
“A common concern is that more efficient air conditioners will become more expensive. However, our analysis of global markets, including India, shows that energy efficiency is not the main factor driving retail prices. With appropriate policy support, improved efficiency can coincide with lower costs as manufacturing expands, supply chains strengthen, and market competition increases,” Phadke said.
The study also noted that the market is already moving toward greater efficiency. More than 1,000 air conditioner models currently available in India already perform above the existing five-star efficiency benchmark, with many of these units manufactured domestically.
Researchers highlighted that room air conditioner ownership among urban Indian households currently averages around 10 percent. Ownership levels rise to nearly 25 percent among higher-income households, while significantly higher penetration rates are already visible in major metropolitan cities including Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru.
The study underscored that India’s future energy security may increasingly depend on how rapidly the country adopts high-efficiency cooling technologies amid rising temperatures, urban expansion, and growing consumer demand.
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