The timing, distribution and gaps between rainfall events are now becoming more critical for Indian agriculture than the total seasonal rainfall. The arrival of the monsoon, the area it covers and the total rainfall received over four months determine the prospects of Indian farming. However, the current situation has highlighted the importance of when and where the rain falls, how long the gaps between rainfall events last and whether the rainfall is evenly distributed.
By the end of July, Maharashtra had received rainfall that was eight per cent above the average. The situation changed sharply in August, when the state received 46 per cent less rainfall than average. By August 31, the overall seasonal rainfall deficit had reached 12 per cent, with 17 districts falling into the 20 to 50 per cent deficit category.
In Nashik district, Nandgaon and Yeola talukas recorded a 37-day rainfall break, while Kalwan and Deola talukas faced a 35-day dry spell. In Marathwada, the rainfall break has continued for 26 days, and crops in Latur, Beed, Dharashiv and Parbhani have begun to wilt. Soybean production is expected to be significantly affected. A demand is being raised for declaring a dry drought in Marathwada and providing assistance of Rs 50,000 per hectare.
The situation across the country is also uneven. After the monsoon began in June, rainfall was 21 per cent below average until July 25, while August again recorded a deficit of more than 16 per cent. By September 8, the country's rainfall deficit stood at around 13 per cent.
In April, rainfall during the monsoon had been forecast at around 92 per cent, with the risk of El Nino cited as a factor. That risk is now becoming visible in the rainfall pattern. In Maharashtra, rainfall figures from Konkan and the Ghat areas are helping sustain the state's overall average, but the ground situation in the rain-dependent belts of Marathwada, Vidarbha and Madhya Maharashtra does not appear to have improved. If rainfall breaks continue in September, the severity of the crisis is expected to increase. The repercussions of this situation are also being felt at the national level.
During the kharif season, India's rice cultivation area has declined by around 1.4 million hectares, while total rice production is estimated to fall by around seven million tonnes, according to a report by the United States Department of Agriculture. With rainfall falling short of expectations because of El Nino, the report estimates that total rice production in the country will be 147 million tonnes after the impact on cultivation and production.
In Maharashtra, the area under rice cultivation has declined by 102,000 hectares. Despite this, the Centre had 63.9 million tonnes of rice stocks at the end of August, five times higher than the required buffer stock. As a result, the USDA has also estimated that India will have enough rice to meet domestic requirements and keep supplies available for exports, allowing the country to retain its position in the global market.
In Maharashtra, kharif sowing had covered 13.6 million hectares by August 31, representing 95.1 per cent of the target. Last year, 15.2 million hectares had been brought under sowing. Cotton acreage stood at 3.837 million hectares, but this was 10 per cent below the five-year average. The area under maize and pulses has also declined.
Sowing, however, does not guarantee that a crop will reach harvest. If adequate moisture is not available after sowing during germination, flowering, pod formation or boll development, yields decline. Soybean, cotton, tur, moong, urad and maize, which are central to Maharashtra's kharif farm economy, are particularly vulnerable to prolonged rainfall breaks.
The State Level Bankers' Committee has also recorded a link between rainfall deficits and difficulties in loan repayment in Vidarbha and Marathwada. The irrigation capacity in these regions is around 14 per cent, compared with the state's average of 23 per cent, according to the committee's record. Repeated crop losses reduce farmers' ability to repay loans. In such a difficult situation, the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana becomes important as a source of financial support for farmers.
Under the scheme, farmers have to pay only two per cent of the insurance premium for kharif crops, while the remaining premium is paid by the government as a subsidy. The scheme provides insurance protection in cases of failure to sow, rainfall breaks while crops are standing and post-harvest losses.
However, waiting for panchnamas for months to determine crop losses is becoming outdated. An agricultural system built around traditional rainfall averages will not remain secure under the changing weather pattern. A system that records drought only after water tankers are deployed is inadequate. It needs to be replaced by a mechanism that takes decisions on crops, water, fodder, credit and employment as soon as rainfall breaks begin to emerge.
A water assessment for every taluka, focused on drought and the structure of agriculture, should be the starting point. Proper planning and modern measures will be essential to address the challenge posed by the rainfall deficit.
About The Author
Comment List