Manna Lal Rawat's Rise Signals BJP's Battle to Reclaim South Rajasthan Tribal Vote

Rawat won the election by more than 2.6 lakh votes. His subsequent elevation as national president of the BJP's Scheduled Tribes (ST) Morcha, however, has marked a far more significant political rise.

For a first-time MP who has maintained a low profile, the ascent has been meteoric. The choice of a tribal leader from South Rajasthan to head the BJP's crucial ST Morcha also carries political significance as the party's tribal vote base, particularly in South Rajasthan, undergoes a major shift.

The BJP's task is complicated by the rapid rise of the Bharatiya Adivasi Party (BAP), formed in 2023 as a splinter group of the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP). The party has expanded its vote share and political influence across South Rajasthan's tribal belt.

From winning two Assembly seats as the BTP in 2018, the splinter group expanded its regional footprint by capturing three Assembly seats in 2023 and one MLA seat in Madhya Pradesh.

After Rajkumar Roat won the Banswara Lok Sabha seat in 2024, defeating both the Congress and the BJP, the BAP emerged as a challenge to both mainstream political parties.

Across the 28 Assembly seats that dominate the Southern Rajasthan tribal belt, the BAP has disrupted the traditional BJP-Congress bipolar contest. In the 2023 state elections, the BJP won 17 of the 28 seats, the Congress won seven and the BAP won three.

The vote share, however, presents a different picture. The BAP won Chorasi, Aspur and Dhariyawad, with substantial vote shares in all three constituencies. In Chorasi, the BAP secured 53.92 per cent of the total votes polled. In Aspur, it won 46.7 per cent of the vote share, while in Dhariyawad it secured 37.67 per cent.

The electoral mathematics in the Lok Sabha elections was even more concerning for the mainstream parties. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's vote share in South Rajasthan was 21.22 per cent. In 2024, it fell by six percentage points.

The Congress witnessed an even sharper decline. Its vote share fell from 28.27 per cent in 2019 to 24.53 per cent in 2024.

The BAP was emerging as a third political alternative in South Rajasthan, with the Banswara Lok Sabha election proving to be a game-changer.

In the 2024 general elections, the BAP won the massive Banswara-Dungarpur parliamentary seat, which spans eight of the 28 ST-dominated Assembly segments, with a margin of nearly 2.5 lakh votes. It had finally arrived with a regional vote share that crossed the 50 per cent mark in core tribal sectors.

The BJP's decision to appoint Manna Lal Rawat as head of the ST Morcha comes against this backdrop.

Speaking exclusively to NDTV after being appointed head of the ST Morcha, Manna Lal Rawat said, "These things have been taken note of. The BJP still maintains its hold on the tribals. If you see the seats in West Bengal, the BJP won all 16 reserved seats. We will address the issue of South Rajasthan. The BAP is talking about a Bhil Pradesh. We will work within the framework of the Constitution and we will talk about development to consolidate our vote bank. Under the leadership of Modiji there are many schemes to improve agriculture, provide employment and stop migration of tribals. This is our focus, not a separatist agenda that smacks of a red corridor. We will talk about kaushal vikas."

BAP leader Rajkumar Roat counters this argument, saying the BJP has tried to take tribals away from their core identity.

"The BJP has tried to create divisions in the tribal community. They want to see tribals as part of the larger Hindu fold. But the tribal identity has nothing to do with religion. We have our own practices and customs. This is not about Hindu, Muslim and Christian. The BAP will advocate a Bhil Pradesh which will comprise parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra," he said.

This "separatist" identity directly challenges the position of the Vanvasi Kalyan Parishad, an affiliate of the RSS.

Manna Lal Rawat said, "We realise the need to engage with the tribal youth. The BAP says many things on social media. They share a map of the Bhil Pradesh that was made during British colonial rule. What is the relevance of boundaries drawn by the British? These things create divisions in society. The BJP, on the other hand, is celebrating and upholding tribal culture by commemorating the Janjati Gaurav Diwas each year."

Manna Lal Rawat's new role, therefore, extends beyond the BJP's tribal arithmetic in Rajasthan. With the BAP looking beyond the state through its Bhil Pradesh agenda, the low-profile MP from South Rajasthan now finds himself at the centre of the BJP's broader battle for the tribal vote.