The shift is reflected in the life story of 58-year-old Parul Gayen, who grew up in a densely populated settlement in Delhi during the 1970s, when large families were common across the country. At the time, children filled neighbourhoods and households. Her mother was one of six siblings, while her grandfather belonged to a family of eleven children. Swapan, the young man she frequently saw cycling to work and later married at the age of 16, came from a family of seven children, although one sibling died during infancy.
Today, the situation is markedly different. Parul Gayen and her husband Swapan now live in a one-bedroom apartment in the same area. Of their three adult children, only two chose to become parents, and both decided to have only one child each. Reflecting on the change, Gayen noted that a single child often experiences loneliness.
India's demographic transformation has unfolded rapidly over the past several decades. In 1950, the country's population stood at approximately 360 million, while the average woman gave birth to six children during her lifetime. At that time, fertility levels were comparable to those recorded in the United States roughly a century earlier.
The country's population has since expanded dramatically to about 1.45 billion people, accounting for nearly one-sixth of humanity. India surpassed China in 2023 to become the world's most populous country and has continued to record population growth.
However, the country's Total Fertility Rate, which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have during her lifetime, has now fallen to 1.9. This is below the replacement level required to maintain a stable population over the long term.
Although India's population is expected to continue growing for some time as today's younger generation enters parenthood, demographic trends indicate that a future decline has become inevitable unless fertility levels rise above 2.15. Current projections suggest the fertility rate is likely to continue falling, potentially accelerating the pace of future population shrinkage.
The trend is even more pronounced in some urban regions. In Delhi, for example, the Total Fertility Rate has fallen to 1.2, highlighting the extent of the demographic shift taking place in parts of the country.
The declining fertility rate marks a historic turning point for India. After decades of rapid population expansion, the nation now faces the prospect of an ageing society and eventual population contraction, reflecting a profound transformation in family size, reproductive choices and demographic patterns across generations.
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