Pradeep Gupta, founder of Axis My India, stated on Wednesday that the organisation’s face-to-face survey methodology encountered significant resistance from voters following the first phase of polling. He noted that a large proportion of respondents refused to reveal their choices, making it impossible to build a representative sample.
“See, the method of Axis My India is talking to people face to face. And when we tried to talk after the first phase, about 60–70 per cent of the people had their lips sealed. They were not even ready to say yes or no,” Gupta told NDTV.
He further added that the prevailing electoral atmosphere discouraged open responses. “No one is ready to talk to anyone in the context of elections. So, as long as our sample is not representative, on the basis of a 20–30 per cent sample, we do not believe it is right to predict any number. For that, we will try once again Thursday. Maybe now that the elections have been held, people will be more relaxed,” he said.
However, reports later confirmed that Axis My India ultimately decided not to release any projections.
Meanwhile, other prominent polling agencies have issued sharply divided forecasts for the 294-seat West Bengal Assembly, where voting took place in two phases on April 23 and April 29 after intense campaigning by both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Trinamool Congress led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. The majority mark in the state stands at 148 seats, and results are scheduled to be declared on May 4.
According to Matrize, the Trinamool Congress plus alliance is projected to secure between 125 and 140 seats, falling short of a majority, while the Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to lead with 146 to 161 seats, indicating a closely contested battle.
Polling agency P-Marq also forecast a BJP lead, projecting 150 to 175 seats for the party and 118 to 138 seats for the Trinamool Congress, with minor parties expected to win between two and six seats.
Poll Diary offered a more decisive projection in favour of the BJP, estimating 142 to 171 seats for the party, while predicting a significantly weaker performance for the Trinamool Congress at 99 to 127 seats, well below the majority threshold.
In contrast, People’s Pulse presented a divergent outcome, suggesting that the incumbent Trinamool Congress may retain power despite reduced strength, projecting 177 to 187 seats compared to its current 215 seats in the Assembly. It estimated the BJP’s tally at 95 to 110 seats.
With polling agencies delivering conflicting outcomes and one major pollster withholding projections entirely, West Bengal’s political landscape appears deeply uncertain as the state awaits results that will determine whether the Trinamool Congress secures a fourth consecutive term or the Bharatiya Janata Party achieves a historic breakthrough.
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