The 2026 election has been mired in controversy over the Election Commission-ordered Special Intensive Revision of the voter roll, an exercise meant to cut deceased, duplicate, and illegal voters, as well as those who no longer live in the state. The SIR was challenged, ferociously, by the ruling Trinamool Congress and civil activists, even deep into campaigning for this election, but was firmly backed by the Supreme Court. The consequent purge dropped an estimated 90.8 lakh men and women, around 12 per cent of the electorate, days before voting was to happen. This meant the overall voter base shrank to around 6.75 crore, prompting heated debates over how the changed baseline might have skewed voting percentages and how that might impact election outcomes.
Post the SIR scrubbing, the voter base for Phase 1 was 3.61 crore, while total votes cast were 3.35 crore. The voter turnout, therefore, was indeed 92.8 per cent. This figure has been highlighted by the BJP as a sign of anti-incumbency, but it has also been hailed by the Trinamool, as each side tries to reframe this post-voting narrative into a win, seeking to reassure and galvanise voters ahead of the second and final phase. Home Minister Amit Shah highlighted conventional wisdom, that high voter turnout equals a change in government, and said on X: “The sun of Trinamool's corruption and hooliganism has set.” Doubling down on his party's position on the SIR, that it will cripple a Trinamool that relies on ‘votes’ from illegal immigrants from Muslim-majority Bangladesh to stay in power, he also attacked the ruling party over ‘ghuspaithiya’, or infiltrators. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who argued the SIR was designed to eliminate those who might vote for her party, turned around to claim the high turnout actually meant the people had voted to “protect their rights” and reject the BJP. Both parties insist this high turnout will remain for the next phase on April 29.
The change in baseline for Phase 1 seats in this election was roughly 37 lakh, meaning there were around 37 lakh fewer people on the roll across the 152 constituencies that voted compared to the 2021 election. The counter to the high turnout figure is that removing these names pumps up voting percentages, making it look like more people had voted when that might not be true. In that case, a high turnout does not necessarily signal anti-incumbency. The scrubbed names include around 27 lakh people whose appeals remain pending before tribunals but were told they cannot vote in this election, despite having voted in the past, till their cases are settled.
A simple way to assess the impact is to factor scrubbed numbers back into the equation. Assuming an electorate of roughly four crore before the SIR in Phase 1 seats and the same number of votes cast, the percentage drops significantly. These calculations are based on estimates only. Even as estimates, though, a non-scrubbed voter list indicates a voter turnout only marginally higher, roughly 1.85 per cent, than the 2021 election.
This difference carries significance. Experts suggest a two-point likely impact, arithmetic and political, that can intersect. The total number of deletions is slightly more than the Trinamool's winning margin from the 2021 election. Five years ago, Mamata Banerjee's party polled 9.87 per cent more than the BJP. The revision has also slashed voter lists in 82.7 per cent of seats won by the Trinamool last time, including areas such as West Burdwan and South Dinajpur, where the party won by slim margins.
In several instances, particularly in districts like Murshidabad, the cuts affected Muslim communities, a vote base widely seen as favouring the Trinamool more than the BJP. Four districts with significant Muslim populations, Murshidabad at 66 per cent, Malda at 51 per cent, North 24 Parganas at 26 per cent, and South 24 Parganas at 36 per cent, account for approximately 12.2 lakh cases of voter roll deletions. In 2021, the Trinamool won a majority of seats from these districts, 20 of 22 in Murshidabad, eight of 12 from Malda, and 57 of 64 from North and South 24 Parganas, totalling 75 seats, or 35 per cent of all seats the party secured.
However, similar patterns exist in seats the BJP narrowly claimed. Dinhata in Cooch Behar, won by the BJP by less than 60 votes, has reportedly seen over 10,000 names struck off the roll. Balarampur in Purulia district and Moyna in Purba Medinipur appear similarly poised. The Matua community, which contributed heavily to the BJP's strong showing in the 2021 election, has also been affected, with community leaders claiming 70 per cent received deletion notices.
The voter list scrubbing has therefore likely cost both sides, making the poll outcome more uncertain. It could ultimately depend on the concentration of cuts across voting communities, an issue flagged by the Trinamool. Critics argue this raises the possibility that an election could be influenced before it even begins, referring to a tipping point where a significant baseline shift alters margins. In a constituency of 200,000 voters, a candidate would theoretically need 100,001 votes to win, but if rolls were scrubbed to 180,000, only 91,000 votes would be required.
In such scenarios, particularly in seats with narrow victory margins, outcomes could be flipped depending on the scale and distribution of deletions. In 2021, around 28 seats were decided by less than 4,000 votes, and as many as 69 by margins of less than five per cent. As Bengal heads into its next phase, the interplay of turnout figures and voter roll revisions is set to define both perception and result.
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