The southwest monsoon, which delivers nearly 70 per cent of India's annual rainfall between June and September, remains the foundation of the nation's agriculture, water security, and rural economy. Forecasts indicate that by the time the monsoon reaches India, El Nino will be in its formative stage as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, known as ENSO, shifts from neutral conditions. Experts warn that such transitions can destabilise weather systems globally, although the behaviour of El Nino remains highly unpredictable.
GP Sharma, President for Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, said El Nino develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean rise abnormally. This warming weakens trade winds and disrupts the Walker Circulation, a large-scale atmospheric system that helps drive tropical weather patterns. For countries such as India, this often results in weaker monsoon winds and below-normal rainfall.
Sharma noted that El Nino does not follow a fixed pattern and may intensify, stall, or dissipate unexpectedly. He also said that consecutive El Nino years are uncommon, and when they do occur, the second year is typically less severe.
Meteorologists distinguish between two principal forms of El Nino. The conventional form involves broad and relatively uniform warming across the Pacific Ocean. The more concerning variant, known as El Nino Modoki, features warming concentrated in the central Pacific while the eastern and western Pacific remain comparatively cooler. This pattern has often proved more damaging to India's monsoon.
Current projections from the United States-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate that El Nino is likely to develop over the coming weeks and months and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27. During the peak period from November 2026 to January 2027, forecasters estimate about a one-in-three probability that the event could become strong to very strong, with a combined probability of nearly two in three that it will reach at least strong intensity. Scientists continue to monitor its progression using the Relative Oceanic Nino Index, although uncertainty over the eventual strength remains significant.
Another crucial factor influencing India's monsoon is the Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD. A positive IOD occurs when waters in the western Indian Ocean become warmer than those in the eastern Indian Ocean, increasing moisture transport toward India and at times offsetting the drying effect of El Nino.
As of the week ending May 10, 2026, the IOD index stood at minus 0.04 degrees Celsius, remaining close to neutral after several weeks of near-zero readings. Such a pattern is often regarded as a precursor to future development. Climate models suggest the IOD may turn positive in June and exceed the positive threshold of 0.4 degrees Celsius by late July or August. However, scientists caution that even a positive IOD may not be sufficient to neutralise the impact of a strong El Nino.
Historical records show that El Nino does not always lead to monsoon failure. Between 1951 and 2022, approximately 60 per cent of El Nino years were associated with below-average rainfall in India, and several major droughts coincided with the phenomenon. The India Meteorological Department's April forecast has already projected below-normal monsoon rainfall this year at about 92 per cent of the long-period average of 87 centimetres.
Yet history also contains notable exceptions. Of 17 major El Nino events in recent decades, at least five produced normal or above-normal rainfall over India. During the powerful 1997-98 El Nino, a strong positive IOD helped deliver above-average monsoon rains. Similar outcomes were recorded in 1983 and 1994, while the weak El Nino of 2006 had limited impact on rainfall.
Scientists emphasise that the location of Pacific warming can be more important than its intensity. Central Pacific warming, characteristic of El Nino Modoki, tends to suppress the Indian monsoon more severely than warming concentrated in the eastern Pacific. In addition, climate change is altering established relationships by increasing land temperatures across Eurasia, strengthening the land-sea thermal contrast, and potentially supporting monsoon circulation.
A landmark 2006 study led by climate scientist KK Kumar concluded that although all severe droughts in India have been linked to El Nino, not every El Nino causes drought. The research highlighted that even weak events can lead to substantial rainfall deficits. In 2002 and 2009, for example, India received only 78 per cent of normal rainfall, underscoring the limitations of judging risk solely by El Nino's intensity.
The effects of El Nino extend far beyond India. The phenomenon is associated with drier conditions in parts of Southeast Asia, southern Africa, and northern Brazil, while bringing wetter weather to regions of South America and equatorial East Africa. It also contributes to rising global temperatures, as demonstrated during recent record-breaking heat years.
Earth system scientist Raghu Murtugudde told NDTV that climate models indicate broadly similar outcomes this year but cautioned against prematurely describing the developing event as a "Super El Nino."
"It is still early to determine the strength of the upcoming El Nino, though it is warming the eastern Pacific. Calling it a 'Super El Nino' may be premature," he said.
Murtugudde explained that El Nino's influence is becoming stronger in a warming world.
"The ocean absorbs heat like a sponge during normal and La Nina years and releases it during El Nino. Global warming is amplifying this effect, as seen in the record-breaking 2023 temperatures. Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense," he said.
He warned that climate change is making weather systems increasingly erratic and that uneven rainfall distribution could inflict greater damage than the overall seasonal deficit.
"Seasonal forecasts predict six to eight per cent below-normal monsoon rainfall this year. Agriculture will suffer more from uneven rain distribution than from the overall deficit," Murtugudde said.
He added that pre-monsoon rainfall has already damaged thousands of hectares in several regions.
"Pre-monsoon rains have already damaged thousands of hectares. We should be cautious comparing this to the 1877-78 El Nino, as there was no anthropogenic global warming then," he said.
Murtugudde noted that the government is preparing for possible supply disruptions arising from weather uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
"The government has already banned sugar exports and is preparing for possible shortages of edible oils and fertilizers in the wake of the West Asia crisis," he said.
According to Murtugudde, India will rely heavily on the India Meteorological Department's short-range, medium-range, and extended-range forecasts to manage disasters and economic disruptions during the monsoon season.
"Central and state governments, along with the private sector, will take decisions accordingly for cascading effects into transportation costs, vegetable prices, edible oils, and other essential commodities," he said.
For India, the stakes are exceptionally high. A weak or erratic monsoon could affect kharif crop production, reservoir storage, rural incomes, and food inflation, while intensifying heatwaves and increasing the risk of forest fires. Such stress may also aggravate energy shortages and fertilizer supply concerns.
Although India cannot prevent El Nino, experts stress that early preparation can significantly reduce its impact. Measures such as promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, adjusting sowing schedules, strengthening water conservation and groundwater recharge, improving reservoir management, and enhancing state-level drought and heat action plans are viewed as essential.
Meteorologists emphasise that El Nino represents a warning signal rather than a certainty of disaster. Advances in seasonal forecasting now provide governments and farmers with valuable lead time to plan for potential disruptions.
As ocean temperatures continue to evolve in the weeks ahead, the outlook will become clearer. For millions of Indians whose livelihoods depend on the monsoon, the shifting conditions in the Pacific Ocean may once again determine whether 2026 becomes a year of abundance or a season of economic strain. India is watching closely, preparing cautiously, and hoping that history delivers one of its more favourable surprises.
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