RBI Holds Repo Rate at 5.25% with Neutral Stance Amid Global Uncertainty

Consequently, the standing deposit facility rate remains at 5 per cent, while the marginal standing facility rate and the Bank Rate remain at 5.50 per cent. The bi-monthly meeting of the committee began on Monday under the chairmanship of the Governor, setting the stage for key decisions amid evolving economic conditions.

The Monetary Policy Committee has also expected that the GDP for the last financial year will be at 7.6 percent, while for the current fiscal year it is projected at 6.9 per cent. The RBI has projected that CPI inflation for the current financial year will be at 4.6 percent, indicating a moderated but still closely monitored price environment.

Mr Malhotra said, “Persistently elevated energy prices due to the West Asia conflict and possible El Niño conditions pose upside risks to inflation.” On the West Asia conflict, the RBI has taken a wait-and-watch approach, citing changing circumstances and the evolving growth-inflation outlook. Accordingly, the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep the policy rate unchanged even as it remains vigilant, closely monitoring incoming information and assessing the balance of risks.

The Governor said that the West Asia conflict will adversely impact growth. He added that higher input costs associated with an increase in energy prices and international freight and insurance costs, along with supply-chain disruptions, could constrain the availability of key inputs for downstream sectors, thus impairing growth.

He added that the fundamentals of the Indian economy are on a stronger footing, providing it with greater resilience to withstand shocks now than in the past. He said that several measures taken by the government, targeted at supporting exports and protecting supply chains, should mitigate the adverse impact of the conflict.

The Governor noted that, despite stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, the Indian rupee in 2025-26 depreciated more than the average in previous years. He reiterated that the exchange rate policy remains unchanged, adding that intervention in the foreign exchange market is aimed at smoothening excessive and disruptive volatility without targeting any specific level or band for the exchange rate.

Mr Malhotra said this is consistent with the long-standing policy of exchange rates being market-d

etermined. He added that the RBI stands committed to this policy and would judiciously contain excessive or disruptive volatility to ensure that self-fulfilling expectations do not exacerbate currency movements beyond what is warranted by fundamentals.

The decision to hold rates steady underscores the central bank’s calibrated stance, balancing growth concerns with inflation risks while navigating geopolitical uncertainties and maintaining financial stability.