Monsoon Advance Slows Across Maharashtra; Mumbai Likely to Witness Delayed Onset Around June 15 Amid Water Supply Concerns

The southwest monsoon entered Maharashtra on schedule on June 6. However, its subsequent advance across the state has been slower than anticipated. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated that the monsoon expanded into additional parts of the west-central and east-central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Telangana on June 9 and June 10.

Earlier forecasts had indicated that the monsoon could reach Mumbai by June 10 or June 11 following its relatively early arrival in the Konkan region. However, evolving weather conditions have altered those projections, with meteorologists now expecting a delayed arrival.

According to the IMD, Mumbai and adjoining areas have primarily experienced intermittent pre-monsoon showers accompanied by humid weather conditions rather than the sustained rainfall typically associated with the monsoon season. The department has forecast light rain and thundershowers across Mumbai, Thane, and surrounding areas until June 14, indicating that the official onset of the monsoon is likely to occur only after this period.

Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has also projected a delayed monsoon onset for Mumbai. Its forecast suggests that rainfall activity during the next three days will remain concentrated south of the Konkan region, particularly over Goa and coastal Karnataka. Mumbai and the broader Konkan belt are expected to receive only light rainfall during this period.

Meteorological assessments have further indicated the possibility of a low-level cyclonic circulation developing over the Arabian Sea off the Goa and South Konkan coast around June 13. The weather system is expected to move closer to the coastline by June 14. If it develops as anticipated, rainfall activity could intensify significantly across the Konkan coast, including Sindhudurg, Ratnagiri, Raigad, Alibag, Mumbai, and Palghar, between June 14 and June 16.

Based on these developments, Skymet estimates that the southwest monsoon could reach Mumbai around June 15, with a possible variation of one day on either side.

The IMD stated that the Northern Limit of Monsoon currently extends through parts of the Arabian Sea and peninsular India before stretching across eastern India toward the northeastern region. The department added that conditions remain favourable for the southwest monsoon to advance further into additional parts of the central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, the remaining areas of Tamil Nadu, the southwest Bay of Bengal, and sections of West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha during the next three to four days.

The delay in widespread monsoon rainfall has also intensified concerns regarding Mumbai’s water security. The city’s seven major lakes, which supply drinking water to millions of residents, currently hold less than 13 percent of their total storage capacity. Slower replenishment caused by weak rainfall could increase the risk of water stress if monsoon activity does not strengthen in the coming weeks.

As the southwest monsoon continues its gradual advance across India, meteorologists remain closely focused on its intensity and progression. The coming days are expected to be crucial for Mumbai and the wider Konkan region, where stronger rainfall activity could determine both the official onset of the monsoon and the city’s immediate water security outlook.