In its report, Antique said Adani Power is entering a multi-year earnings upcycle, supported by a sharp increase in capacity and rising power demand in India. The company plans to expand its installed capacity by more than two times, from 18.15 GW in FY25 to 41.9 GW by FY33. This expansion positions Adani Power as the most efficient private sector baseload power producer in the country, marking a clear turnaround from its earlier phase as a stressed thermal power player.
The brokerage highlighted that India is witnessing a structural upcycle in power demand, with electricity consumption expected to grow at a 6 per cent annual rate between FY22 and FY32. Rising demand from electric vehicles, data centres, artificial intelligence, and manufacturing is also pushing peak power requirements higher, which continues to support the need for reliable coal-based power generation.
The brokerage noted that Adani Power has emerged as a clear leader in the ongoing state-led thermal power procurement cycle. The company has secured around 70 per cent of the awarded capacity so far, winning 12.4 GW out of the total 17.7 GW allotted. This reflects its cost advantage, strong execution capabilities and readiness of projects.
Earnings visibility for the company remains strong, as nearly 90 per cent of its operational capacity and about 67 per cent of its total 41.9 GW portfolio are already tied up under long-term power purchase agreements. Antique expects Adani Power’s consolidated revenue, EBITDA and profit after tax to grow at a healthy pace of 16 per cent, 19 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively, between FY25 and FY32.
The brokerage added that the company plans to fund around 60 per cent of its nearly Rs 2 lakh crore capital expenditure pipeline through internal accruals. This is expected to support steady deleveraging, with net debt-to-EBITDA projected to fall below 1x by FY32, while return on equity is likely to remain above 15 per cent.
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