The period coincides with the annual stubble-burning season in northern India and the Diwali period, raising concerns that pollution from farm fires could have a greater impact on Delhi's PM2.5 levels this year. Stubble burning generally takes place between September 15 and November 30.
Farm fires are currently relatively limited, but their daily numbers are expected to rise through October and peak during the first 10 days of November. This timing could overlap with Diwali, when pollution levels in Delhi are already a major concern.
According to a Times of India report, experts believe stubble burning could contribute more significantly to Delhi's PM2.5 levels this year. In 2025, the contribution of farm fires to Delhi's PM2.5 levels remained relatively low. The impact of stubble burning on Delhi's air quality exceeded 10% on only eight days and crossed 20% on just one day, while on most days it remained below 5%.
In comparison, data from the Decision Support System showed that in 2024, the impact of stubble burning exceeded 20% on 14 days. The possibility of a Super El Niño this year could further intensify the pollution burden during the period when farm fires are expected to increase.
The El Niño phenomenon originating in the Pacific Ocean is affecting several parts of the world, including India. It has been associated with drought in some regions, floods in others and unusually high temperatures elsewhere. The weather shift has also affected the Indian subcontinent, with a reduction in monsoon rainfall being observed.
Anumita Roy Chowdhury, Executive Director of Research and Advocacy at the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), said, “The trend of stubble burning will depend on how strictly the rules are enforced and, more importantly, on the ground preparedness for managing crop residue through in-situ methods and removing crop waste for industrial use through ex-situ methods.”
Roy Chowdhury further said that although crop-burning incidents have declined overall, solutions need to be implemented at scale and effectively to bring the problem close to an end.
She also said that an unusually strong El Niño, combined with global warming, could turn a seasonal phenomenon into a major challenge involving public health, energy and disaster management.
The Climate Impact Lab estimates that India could record around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 compared with a normal year.
With the peak stubble-burning period expected to coincide with the months in which the Super El Niño is projected to have its strongest impact, the effectiveness of farm-residue management and enforcement measures will be crucial to determining the extent of the pollution challenge around Diwali 2026.
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