This pattern of repeated rollovers and emergency funding from friendly states and the IMF has provided short-term breathing space but has also entrenched a fragile economic model that discourages domestic reform, distorts incentives, and perpetuates dependence, according to an article in the Colombo-based Asian News Post.
The article points out that in early January 2026, Pakistan sought roll over of $3 billion from the UAE, currently deposited with the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), in three separate $1 billion tranches, originally deposited in 2021 to shore up Pakistan’s balance of payments and stave off pressure on the foreign exchange reserves.
The article cites official sources as indicating that Pakistan expects the rollover process to be completed on time and has also assured the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the UAE will maintain these deposits in line with commitments made under the ongoing IMF programme. This request is systematic in which Pakistan leans heavily on bilateral partners, notably Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and China, to roll over central bank deposits and commercial loans whenever repayment deadlines approach.
For the current fiscal year, government sources estimate that Pakistan will rely on rollovers of around $12 billion from these three partners alone, underscoring how the country’s external account management has become structurally tied to friendly capital rather than domestic export capacity or productivity-led growth.
The SBP Governor recently highlighted that in fiscal year 2025–26, total external repayments amount to about $25.8 billion, of which approximately $9.3 billion are expected to be rolled over, illustrating how rollovers are now embedded as a routine pillar of debt management rather than an exceptional crisis tool.
The borrowing from the IMF also follows similar lines. The IMF Executive Board approved a new $7 billion, 37‑month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan in September 2024, with disbursement contingent on "sound policies and reforms" but also explicitly backed by substantial financing assurances and rollovers from China, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. IMF officials have acknowledged that Pakistan has already been through 22 previous IMF programmes since 1958, a frequency that itself is symptomatic of recurring external sector crises and the failure of past reform efforts to break the cycle of dependence.
Under the new programme, Pakistan secured immediate disbursement of $1 billion and additional commitments, yet the conditionality again focuses on stabilisation rather than a fundamental restructuring of the economic model, the article added.
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