Considering the Bihar Assembly election is to be held in October, Nitish Kumar would have served a cumulative term of 19 years and eight months, and counting. And he still wants to be the leader for all seasons. However, in the ‘first-past-the-post’ electoral system, where a candidate is declared the winner from a constituency even if there is a difference of one vote over the mandate for the runner-up, a number of factors stand in his way.
In the 2020 Assembly elections, Chirag Paswan’s candidates were seen to have largely contributed to that factor when his Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) allegedly split pro-incumbency votes. That reportedly led to the defeat of Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) nominees in several constituencies. In at least 30 seats, LJP candidates, even if they lost, collected votes that were more in numbers than the difference between the victorious candidate and the JD (U) runner-up.
Though not accusing Nitish Kumar of governance and political stability in public like he did in the run-up to the last Assembly election, Paswan is still holding his cards close to his chest. The actual position would be clear once the NDA seat-sharing formula is clear. And, once colleague and now a strong critic, Prashant Kishor is supposedly building an independent political base with his recently launched Jan Suraaj Party (JSP).
Kishor has been accusing his former boss and the government of administrative deficiencies and corruption. Nitish Kumar, once hailed as “Susashanbabu” or “Mr. Good Administrator”, is facing charges on governance, development, and other deliverables from other Opposition parties as well. Also in play is the anti-incumbency factor after a long spell at the helm of affairs, where he has been accused of political flip-flops, which have been alleged to be an attempt at staying in power.
In 2010, he contested the Bihar Assembly polls in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), winning 115 of the 141 seats. In 2015, the JD (U) crossed over to contest in alliance with Lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) as part of a Janata Parivar Alliance, supported by the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party. His candidates managed to win 71 of the 101 seats the party chose to contest.
However, he again switched sides even before the term could come to an end, and got the BJP’s support. The 2020 election saw a further slide, with the JD (U) finishing as the third largest party, behind friend-turned-opponent RJD, and alliance partner BJP – in that order. Nitish Kumar’s party managed to win 43 of the 115 seats it contested, while the BJP wrested 74 of 110. Meanwhile, the RJD returned as the single-largest party in the Assembly with one seat more than the BJP, where it had put up candidates in 144 constituencies.
In 2015, his switch was considered an expression against the choice of Narendra Modi as the Prime Minister, where he seemed to be nursing a bigger role at the Centre after the thumping victory of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 2014 Lok Sabha election. In addition, Nitish Kumar had been declaring every election as his last, but has unflinchingly continued in office. All the ‘flip-flops’ accumulated against the septuagenarian leader. Of late, reportedly, he has been exhibiting in public the effects of advancing years and perhaps administrative pressures.
There were some rumours of his son, Nishant, stepping into his shoes before this year’s Assembly polls, which were staunchly refuted by JD (U) leaders. As of now, it seems the 74-year-old Nitish Kumar wants to prove he is still a man for all seasons despite being in the autumn – if not the winter – of his political life.
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