The data, highlighted in the IISS "Military Balance 2025," paints a picture of a stark turnaround. Between 2021 and 2025, China launched 10 nuclear-powered submarines with a combined displacement of 79,000 tons. In contrast, the United States launched seven vessels totaling 55,500 tons during the same window. This surge is particularly striking when compared to the 2016–2020 period, where China added a mere three submarines to its fleet. Central to this industrial "boomtime" is the significant expansion of the Huludao shipyard at Bohai Shipbuilding Heavy Industry Co., a facility that has become the engine of China’s undersea ambitions.
While the U.S. Navy maintains a substantial lead in active-duty nuclear vessels—operating 65 submarines compared to China’s 12—the momentum of production tells a different story. American shipyards are currently grappling with systemic delays. A U.S. Congressional Research Service report recently noted that the Virginia-class attack boat program is falling short of its two-per-year goal, averaging only 1.1 to 1.2 deliveries. Furthermore, the critical Columbia-class ballistic-missile program is at least a year behind schedule, with the lead ship, the USS District of Columbia, not expected to enter service until 2028.
China's naval strategy is not limited to nuclear capabilities. The PLAN continues to maintain a massive fleet of 46 conventionally powered submarines—a category the U.S. Navy abandoned entirely in favor of an all-nuclear force. Beyond the silent service, Beijing’s surface fleet is growing at an equally "feverish" pace, with major shipyards like Dalian and Jiangnan producing 39 warships between 2019 and 2023. These efforts have culminated in China operating the world’s largest navy by ship count, including the 2025 addition of the aircraft carrier Fujian. By also exporting modern naval hardware to allies like Pakistan, China is effectively extending its maritime influence and industrial footprint across the Indo-Pacific.
The rapid expansion of the PLAN’s underwater fleet represents a pivotal moment in 21st-century geopolitics. As Western nations struggle with industrial bottlenecks and aging infrastructure, Beijing’s ability to outpace the U.S. in launching high-tech nuclear assets creates a narrowing window for Washington to recalibrate its naval procurement. This shift does not merely alter the numbers on a ledger; it fundamentally reshapes the risks associated with maritime deterrence, potentially challenging the freedom of navigation and the established order of the world’s most vital waterways.
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