“Bangladeshis will vote in their country’s 13th general election on February 12. This is a significant election; it is the first since the ouster of the Sheikh Hasina government in student-led protests in August 2024. And although Hasina’s Awami League (AL) will not be contesting the election, its supporters are likely to play a major role in determining the winner,” observed an article in The Diplomat.
Religious minorities, who comprise 8-10 per cent of the population in Muslim-majority Bangladesh, have voted for the Awami League in the past, the opinion piece mentioned.
Now, while the BNP is engaging in fear-mongering, warning minorities of a bloodbath if the Jamaat comes to power, the latter is threatening this AL vote-bank with violence if they do not vote for the Islamists, stated the article.
However, the leadership of both these two principal parties in fray are seeking image makeovers with an eye on AL supporters.
Incidentally, the two were once political allies, where Jamaat leaders even held ministerial positions in the BNP-led government of 2001-2006, it reminded.
It was their shared animosity for Hasina that kept the BNP and Jamaat together for decades. “And with the AL removed from the political arena since its ban, the glue that once held the BNP and Jamaat together has gone,” the piece pointed out where “Over the past year, differences over a number of issues, including constitutional reforms and when elections should be held, have erupted in the open.”
Quoting opinion polls, the article mentioned that the BNP is ahead, with findings predicting from a landslide victory for the party to even a close contest.
“In the months after the fall of the AL, BNP cadres were out of control. As they engaged in looting and violence, the BNP’s stock among the people fell,” observed the article.
On the other hand, return of late Prime Minister Khaleda Zia's son and BNP Acting Chairperson Tarique Rahman from the UK has provided a shot in the arm for party cadres and Khaleda’s death has triggered a sympathy wave, it added.
With the AL absent, analysts and pollsters are focused on how its supporters will behave – whether they will abstain, split, or coalesce behind the BNP to prevent other forces from gaining ground.
Despite surveys giving favourable numbers, the BNP faces uncertainties arising out of voter turnout, the role of regional and Islamist parties, and the potential for last‑minute alliances or defections.
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