The Monsoon Session is scheduled to commence in the third week of July. The proposed Constitution (One Hundred and Thirty First Amendment) Bill, 2026, also known as the Delimitation Bill, which seeks to redraw electoral boundaries based on the 2011 Census, was earlier defeated in Parliament in April after it failed to secure the required two-thirds majority. The setback also impacted the Constitution Amendment Bill on women’s reservation, which was linked to it and consequently failed.
The National Democratic Alliance currently lacks the two-thirds majority in the Lok Sabha, a shortfall that proved decisive during the April legislative push. On Monday, Trinamool Congress Member of Parliament Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar claimed that 20 party MPs are prepared to break away, exceeding the threshold required under anti-defection provisions. These MPs reportedly convened at the residence of Union Minister Bhupender Yadav. The Trinamool Congress holds 29 seats in the Lok Sabha.
The rebel group is expected to form a separate bloc and extend support to the central government. If this development materialises, the National Democratic Alliance’s strength in the Lok Sabha would cross the 300-mark for the first time.
Parallel discussions are underway regarding conditional support from the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam led by M. K. Stalin, following its recent electoral setback in Tamil Nadu and its political distancing from the Congress party in alliance with Vijay-led Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam. Sources suggest that the party’s 22 Members of Parliament may extend issue-based support.
A senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader stated that the government is preparing to introduce several key legislative measures in the Monsoon Session, including a constitutional amendment to implement 33 percent reservation for women in the Lok Sabha starting from the 2029 general elections, along with proposals such as “One Nation, One Election.” The government is reportedly awaiting a stronger numerical position closer to the two-thirds threshold before advancing these bills.
Following recent state assembly election outcomes across five states, the National Democratic Alliance has strengthened its parliamentary position. The two-thirds majority threshold in the 543-member Lok Sabha stands at 362 seats. With three seats currently vacant due to the deaths of sitting Members of Parliament from Basirhat, Shillong, and Nowgong, the effective threshold is reduced to 360.
At present, the National Democratic Alliance commands the support of 293 Members of Parliament. If the group of 20 Trinamool Congress MPs extends support, the tally rises to 313. Conditional backing from 22 Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam MPs could further increase it to 335. The alliance is also reportedly seeking support from nine Members of Parliament of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena faction, with a possible split yielding six additional seats, potentially taking the total to 341.
During the April vote on the constitutional amendment, the National Democratic Alliance secured 298 votes, exceeding its core strength through additional support. Including these surplus votes, the projected tally could reach 348, leaving the government just 12 votes short of the two-thirds requirement. Efforts are ongoing to bridge this gap through smaller parties, independent legislators, and potential cross-voting.
Under constitutional provisions, a constitutional amendment requires a special majority, defined as a majority of the total membership of the House and two-thirds of members present and voting. In the April session, 528 Members of Parliament were present, setting the effective two-thirds threshold at 352 votes. The amendment was defeated as the government secured 298 votes against 230 opposing votes, losing by a margin of 54 votes. The current political realignments indicate a significantly narrowed gap.
In the Rajya Sabha, the National Democratic Alliance is also approaching a two-thirds majority. The Trinamool Congress previously held 13 members, one of whom, Sukhendu Sekhar Roy, has resigned and may re-enter the Upper House representing the Bharatiya Janata Party. Similar resignations and re-nominations by other Trinamool Congress members are reportedly under consideration.
The National Democratic Alliance has already surpassed 150 seats in the Upper House, while the threshold for a two-thirds majority in the Rajya Sabha is 164. The eight Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Members of Parliament in the Upper House may also extend conditional support, further strengthening the government’s position.
As political alignments continue to shift across both Houses of Parliament, the National Democratic Alliance appears to be steadily advancing toward a parliamentary strength capable of pushing through major constitutional amendments, marking a potentially significant transformation in legislative arithmetic ahead of the Monsoon Session.
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